Russia Resurgent Superpower ? Or Smoke and Mirrors

The multiple reports and end-of-year wisdoms of Russia "gaining" strength are greatly overblown. LNR has reported that indeed, Russia has taken a more aggressive stance, but, that "was" backed up by oil at $147 a barrel.

Now, that oil has tumbled tremendously, down to $37-45 per barrel (completely crushing the ridiculous announcements of a global shortage of oil due to unmet demands- there is no current or foreseen oil shortage in the near or medium term future) Russia is bracing for social riots, massive cuts in future military spending and a collapse in their financial and stock markets. Hardly a resurgent superpower- more like the last whimper of a corrupt, self-contained post-communist failure of an economy reliant on oil and natural resource revenues to infuse cash into an otherwise, dead and dying economy. Along with a rapidly declining population, the high oil prices of last year gave another breath to a dying patient- that is all.

For even Putin's adventurism this year amounted to little- a few naval ships visiting Venezuela, some Russian bombers back on air patrols and an easy win against a tiny mouse known as Georgia, it hardly amounts to anything near a resurgent strategic posture. Russia did not roll back NATO moving ever closer to the Motherland, nor stopping the planned and ongoing anti-missile defense system being set up in Eastern Europe, nor stopping American dominance in the Middle East, it was still an overall clear victory for NATO and America, not Russia.

Russia "gaining power" is all smoke and mirrors.

俄国复活的超级大国？ 或者用虚假消息骗人 俄国"倍数报告和年底wisdoms; gaining" 力量很大地是过分的。 LNR的确报告了那，俄国采取了更加积极的姿态，但是， " was" 支持由油在$147每桶。 现在，那油巨大地翻滚了，下来到$37-45每桶(完全地击碎油全球性短缺的可笑公告由于为满足的要求没有潮流或预见的油短缺在近或中期未来)俄国为社会暴乱支撑，巨型在他们的财政和股市上削减未来军费和崩溃。 坚硬一个复活的超级大国更象经济的腐败，独立性的共产主义之后疏忽的最后抽泣倚赖于油和自然资源收支否则灌输现金入，死去和垂死的经济。 与迅速地人口下降一起，去年的高油价给了另一呼吸是全部的一名死的患者。 为甚而Putin' s冒险主义今年共计一点访问委内瑞拉，一些俄国轰炸机的一些艘军舰在空中巡逻，并且反对叫作佐治亚的一只微小的老鼠的一次容易的胜利，它几乎不共计任何东西在一个复活的战略姿势附近。 俄国没有滚动移动离祖国较近，亦不停止计划的和持续的反导弹防御系统的北约被设定在东欧，亦不停止美国优势在中东，它仍然是北约和美国的，不是俄国一次整体清楚的胜利。 俄国" 获取power" 是所有用虚假消息骗人。

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

The Krushchev Challenge/ The Obama Kennedy Parallel

It is well known that President Kennedy was considered, by our Cold War foes as "weak" because he was young and inexperienced. In addition, Kennedy did not have a political establishment behind him, neither in the Congress or business community.

For these reasons, Krushchev thought it an opportune time to expand the Soviet Empire and encroach on American stomping grounds around the world, threatening vital sea lanes, Berlin and the ultimate challenge in Cuba.

The point being, not that Kennedy handled Krushchev well enough, but that the very election of Kennedy was seen by opponents as the right opportunity to "increase" their power, and "decrease" American power. One must remember that Kennedy was elected just after Eisenhower, who was (Eisenhower) seen by America's opponents as a successful general at the helm of America, respected by the military and therefore not to be pushed, lest a general is quickly ready for a war- so thought the Soviets. So when Kennedy was elected, it was the right timing for the Krushchev Challenge.

Now, 46 years later, with multiple hot spots, a resurgent Russia, as well as others, foes are licking their chops at the prospect of an outsider (Kennedy was the first Catholic and Obama being the first Black president), young, inexperienced, without a political establishment. The Vice-President elect, Biden, himself said during the campaign that Obama would be challenged by other countries. Obama must now prepare for his own "Krushchev" challenge. There are multiple threats which may increase in volitility and with Obama in office, may spur further adventurism from Russia, Iran (especially an Israel-Iran showdown) Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela and North Korea where radical generals are already wrestling for power amid a sick or already dead Kim Jong-Il.

The Kruschev challenge will test the resolve and capacity of Obama as it did Kennedy, for no matter all the experts around him, as Kennedy had Dean Rusk and Robert McNamara (known as the Whiz Kids) and now Obama has Hillary Clinton and so-called foreign policy expert and VP Joe Biden, the ultimate decisions will be made by Obama.

As the Cuban missile crisis defined the Kennedy administration, so to will this coming "Krushchev Challenge" define Obama's first four years in office.


Krushchev挑战Obama肯尼迪平行 由我们的冷战仇敌是知名的肯尼迪总统被考虑了，作为" weak" 因为他是年轻和无经验的。 另外，肯尼迪没有在他之后的政治创立，不国会或工商业界的。 因此， Krushchev在古巴认为它一个时机扩展苏联帝国和侵犯在美国重踏地面环球，威胁重要海上航线、柏林和最后挑战。 是的点，没有那肯尼迪处理了Krushchev还好，但是那肯尼迪的竞选由对手看见作为对"的正确的机会; increase" 他们的力量和" decrease" 美国力量。 一个人必须记得肯尼迪在艾森豪威尔之后被选举了， (艾森豪威尔)由America'看见; 作为一位成功的将军的s对手美国的舵的，尊敬由军事并且不被推挤，唯恐将军迅速准备好战争如此认为苏维埃。 因此，当肯尼迪被选举了，它是Krushchev挑战的正确的时间。 现在， 46年后，与多热点，复活的俄国，并且其他，舔他们的剁在局外人的远景(肯尼迪是第一的天主教徒和的Obama第一位黑人总统)，年轻人，无经验，不用政治创立。 副总统选举， Biden，他自己说在竞选期间Obama将由其他国家挑战。 Obama必须现在为他自己的"做准备; Krushchev" 挑战。 有也许增加在volitility和与Obama在办公室的多个威胁，也许激励从俄国，伊朗(特别是以色列伊朗摊牌)伊拉克、阿富汗、委内瑞拉和北朝鲜的进一步冒险主义根本将军为在病残或已经死的金正日之中的地方力量已经搏斗。 Kruschev挑战将测试决心，并且Obama容量，它在他附近做了肯尼迪，没有问题的所有专家，作为肯尼迪有罗伯特・麦克纳马拉教务长Rusk和(叫作专家哄骗)和Obama现在有希拉里・克林顿，并且所谓的对外政策专家和VP乔Biden，最终决定将由Obama做。 古巴导弹危机定义了肯尼迪政府，因此愿这以后的" Krushchev Challenge" 定义Obama' s第一四工作年份。


Right to Self-Defense: It's the LAW

It is amazing how the recent Israeli "counter-attack" on Hamas in Gaza has brought the Arab world off its feet, yet, during the last several days in which Hamas was openly shelling Israel, there was barely a peep from anyone except the U.S. Both international law and the United Nations Charter contain the "right to self-defense" and Israel was clearly exercising that right after several days of warnings to Hamas. Why is it that the Arab community and the United Nations did not condemn Hamas katusha strikes into Israel- as they were "untargeted" strikes meant to cause death and mayhem to civilians- a clear war crime, yet, those actions by Hamas made barely a headline. LNR does believe that Israel always exercises its power fairly, however, in this case, the belligerents were duly warned and the attack was aimed at Hamas security forces. LNR's author, as a trained and experienced international law of war expert and human rights expert, with over 12 years of war time experience in the Former Yugoslavia with the United Nations, does not believe that the collateral deaths of civilians during the Israeli attacks constitute an "excessive use" of force, as declared by UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon. Ban-Ki Moon has ZERO experience in a war zone, nor any human rights or international law education or experience, thus, his opinion on "excessive use of force" is "unqualified."

正确对自卫： It' s法律 它怎么是惊人的最近以色列" 反attack" 在哈姆斯在加沙带来了阿拉伯世界它的脚，在最近几天在哪哈姆斯公开轰击以色列，几乎没有有从任何人的窥视除了美国。 两国际法和联合国宪章包含" 正确对自已defense" 并且以色列明显地行使那在几天警告之后给哈姆斯。 为什么是它阿拉伯社区和联合国没有谴责哈姆斯katusha触击进入以色列，因为他们是" untargeted" 罢工意味导致死亡，并且对平民的打斗流血清楚的战争犯罪，由哈姆斯的那些行动几乎没有做了一个标题。 LNR相信以色列相当总是行使它的力量，然而，在这种情况下，交战国交付地被警告了，并且攻击是瞄准的哈姆斯安全部队。 LNR' s作者，作为战争专家和人权专家一部训练的和有经验的国际法，有在12年的战争期间经验期间在前南斯拉夫和联合国，不相信平民抵押死亡在以色列攻击期间的构成" 过份use" 力量，如宣称由联合国禁令Ki Moon秘书长。 禁令Ki月亮有零的经验在战区，亦不所有人权或国际法教育或者经验，因而，他的关于"的看法; 对force"的过份用途; 是" unqualified."


It's So Cold, Where is the Global Warming ?

So many areas of the world is experiencing record cold temperatures and snow fall, they may be hoping that global warming can hurry up and warm temperatures a bit. LNR is all for global warming so that we can enjoy the northern parts of the hemisphere with warmer temperatures. Imagine all the extra food we will have globally with millions of hectares which are now frozen tundra turned into fertile farm land. Resources, supposedly now in short supply (another great myth of popular pseudo-science) will have a big boost with global warming as new lands become available for extraction. Climate change is a natural event which can be nor stopped nor encouraged by man. The works of man are so insignificant in scale to the natural dynamics of the earth that thinly supported theories of man being the main cause of climate change is absolutely laughable yet frightening how many people believe this sort of flat-earth science.

It' s如此寒冷，在哪里是全球性变暖？ 世界的许多区域体验记录冷的温度，并且雪秋天，他们也许希望全球性变暖可能赶紧和温暖的温度位。 LNR是全部全球性变暖的，以便我们可以享受半球的北部与更加温暖的温度的。 想象我们全球性地将饮用与成千上万公顷现在是结冰的寒带草原把变成肥沃农场土地的所有额外食物。 资源，推测在供应不足(普遍的假科学另一个了不起的神话)现在将有与全球性变暖的一个大助力，新大陆变得可利用为提取。 气候变化是可以是亦不停止亦不鼓励由人的一个自然事件。 人工作是很无意义的在标度对稀薄地支持是理论的人主要起因的气候变化是绝对可笑的地球，吓唬多少的自然动力学人民相信这类平地球科学。

They're Cutting Too FAST !

LNR already weeks ago, warned that the Feds should not cut rates so much, so fast. Keeping liquidity yes, but LNR warned not to repeat the Bank of Japan’s mistakes in the late 1980’s of cutting the discount rate too much too fast, lest it gave away its most powerful weapon to fight recession. The Fed discount rate will soon be 0.5% leaving little room to fall further. In several articles, LNR has counseled the rapid and massive creation of jobs as a natural factor in reviving the economy with minimal inflation and long term benefits. Throwing “trillions” of dollars into the economy in the form of cheap credit will NOT give short, medium OR long term growth, it will only result in inflation. Employment offers a whole set of benefits that filter through the economy naturally and creates stable long term growth as well as stemming the current downward spiral.

Obama is working on creating 2.5 million jobs, he’s wrong, we’re looking at a need to create 5-7 million new jobs over the next two years to have the desired effects.

Real Estate Crash Dirty Little Secret

The media has been blaming the average home owner who is loosing their home for bringing down prices of the real estate market. Actually, it was the investors who were flipping homes that "dumped" homes on the market beginning in late 2006 that turned this market. In some places, like Phoenix Arizona, speculative home flipping investors accounted for up to 40% of all home sales. Individual home owners who are now going into foreclosure are just a a byproduct of the home flippers that created the bubble, and then popped it.

Thank You Xie Xie

Thanks to those who came to the special art show, especially our supporters from the China TEFL program and our special supporters in Guangzhou. Xie Xie

The Comments

Global Warming
Oops, I guess no one told Houston Texas. Houston gets snow, I guess global warming acts in reverse in warm climates such as Houston. Climate change, of course, the climate is not static, its dynamic and is always changing, just as it did before man walked on the earth. The climate has changed on mars, I don’t’ see many cars there though, I wonder how that climate changed ? Maybe natural forces ? Maybe here too, but don’t tell Houston.

Most Big-Banks Bankrupt
Of course, if big banks kept all their cash, how could they make profits ? Of course banks don’t hold much cash, they loan it out to make money, that’s how banks work. So, when there is a financial panic, the system seizes up and LNR already explained about fractional reserve banking. Banks going bankrupt overnight is not a surprise but an expectation in a financial panic when fractional reserve banking is used.

LNR 100% Correct about Oil, Most others were totally wrong

LNR a couple of months ago commented that the high prices of oil did not reflect “any” shortages of oil supplies, but rather pure speculative profits. For most of last year, almost universally, respected media reported that- these high prices can’t be speculation alone, the high prices are a function of increasing demand from China and other growing countries and we will soon run out of supplies ! Wow, they were ALL wrong again. LNR stated that its independent research indicated that current supplies, without any new discoveries- which there will be, would last at least another 50 years even at the present increasing consumption rate. Therefore, LNR had no doubts that the world’s oil needs and supplies were hardly running out- as most of the media was stating. Oil prices continue to drop this week.

RATE Cuts a disaster !!

LNR never endorsed bank rate cuts. Keeping liquidity yes, but rate cuts- ! ? no, that will lead to de-flation as LNR warned- we cannot allow America to slip into a deflationary death spiral as Japan did many years ago and are still feeling the effects today. That Japanese deflationary spiral ended the Rising Sun into a quick sunset. American banks need to approve qualified loan applicants, while at the same time, extend mortgage ammoritization over 45 and 50 years to make the loans affordable, yet not push down interest rates where the central bank will no longer have any effective economic tools to adjust the economy.

Condoleezza Rice

Ms. Rice was not impressive in security or international affairs these last few years. Probably, as LNR author knew her personally years ago, her expertise is in Russian/Soviet affairs. She was a university professor with no foreign policy or government experience. This lacking, you get bad results.

Obama Behind the LNR Curve

As usual, not even a President elect could be out in front of LNR. LNR weeks ago informed readers that jobs- created- is the key and of those jobs- concentration should be on infrastructure and alternative energy.

Obama today, caught up with LNR, announcing his focus on new jobs to be infrastructure and green-jobs.

Presidential Trinity

The new administration gives you three presidents, not one. With Bill Richards to be commerce secretary and Hillary for Sec. of State, along with President Elect Obama, you are getting two almost-potential Presidents along with Obama in the cabinet. Talk about star-power. Can a Presidential Trinity make 3 Presidents better than one ?

Mrs. Clinton as Secretary of State doesn’t add up to a Hillary of Beans

LNR’s author has walked the walk, not just talked the talk. Hillary has NO professional foreign affairs experience and by her own admission, on many occasions, professed her expertise to be in domestic affairs. To pick Hillary on her name alone is not good enough for a position like that of Secretary of State, where expertise in foreign affairs is paramount. She has not walked the walk.