A certain large Asian country is hacking thousands of computers worldwide !
No problem, sensitive computers are NOT connected to the net- impossible to hack. Relax.
Monday, March 30, 2009
America to Blame ?
LNR does not agree with Obama or others around the world who are blaming America for their involvement in the financial meltdown. The banks of those countries that purchased exotic securities, knowing full well that America’s real estate market (which underpinned the exotic securities) was a hyped up speculative bubble have 100% of the blame on themselves. Can you imagine what other countries would have said if America blocked them from buying these lucrative securities for the past ten years ? These banks knew about the bubble yet for short sightedness, continued to buy exotic securities- they- and no one else, especially America, are to blame. If you play with big money in hot speculation, you are taking a risk and experienced financial people know that. America blame- ZERO.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
LNR Commentary about an article in the Economist Magazine
The Economist has based its entire analysis on convenient and contrived suppositions. This distorted picture is being presented as facts. The following facts are well known all over the world.- commentary from someone writing about an article in the Economist.
1 China is sitting on the largest cash reserves- economist
LNR Review commentary:
The only reason countries like China, and others, have “cash reserves” is because those reserves are in a currency other than their own. The reason certain countries keep, dollars, pounds, yen, Euro is because they are the main currencies in which settlements between currencies are made- they are a “global” mediums of exchange- currencies of other nations, like China, are not used for settlements in international trade, thus, countries with currencies which have “little” confidence in them- MUST have some reserves in one of the reserve currencies. Therefore there is no need that countries like America keep “reserves” because America’s currency IS the major reserve currency of the world. There are two other main reasons why China keeps large reserves- it must maintain liquidity to its importers and exporters because the RMB is not used for trade; second- China requires large reserves because there are gigantic financial losses on paper due to bad bank debts- China’s “toxic debt” which were extended during the real estate boom and to bankrupt state companies – these loans have no hope of recovery and merely remain on the books- understated or non-performing but hidden due to the wide lack of transparency in the Chinese banking system. However, the Chinese government is aware of the gigantic size of non-performing loans with banks and therefore has built up reserves to protect against a widespread banking collapse. Bottom line, the huge reserves of China does not reflect strength, but structural weakness.
2 Chinese banks do not have toxic debt like USA
See above: Toxic debt is an understatement- China specifically keeps enormous reserves to cover trillions of RMB in bad debt- these loans were made under pressure to state owned companies which according to international accounting standards- are bankrupt, and bad real estate loans which are non-performing or made against real estate assets with wildly inflated value appraisals.
3 America is trillions in debt
Yes: so what. America’s wealth- including derivatives is easily over 100 Trillion- therefore, although debt is high in relation to past ratio’s, America compared to many countries has lower debt to wealth. If one compares “deficits” to GNP/GDP it’s true that the current spending will put the ratio of debt to GNP much higher than in recent years, although not even near what it was during WWII era, thus, we are not in the range of “bankrupting’ America as some pundits have declared. America’s wealth is NOT measured by your GNP- that is “America’s “ income- not it’s wealth- and this is where the mistakes in comparisons are being made in the media.
4. America owes trillions to China
Hardly true: America owes in financial instruments- near ONE trillion but not “trillion S “ with an S. Remember, many countries including China buy American treasury bonds because of confidence and strength in America- and many American investors buy bonds- however, most American investment is attracted to higher yielding investments which are too sophisticated for foreigners- thus, most American capital flows to other investment vehicles and not treasury bonds. Even now, the Government has had NO lack of buyers for American debt. The bottom line- the fact that other countries, including China DOES NOT indicate any lack of funding based in America- since the yields for T-Bills are comparatively low for Americans- they invest in other things- but the safety + yield of T-bills for foreigners are attractive and they would rather invest in America than anywhere else- this indicates strength and confidence in the American government and economy- NOT weakness. In other words, if China and other countries were NOT to invest in T-bills- there is more than ample capital in America to buy up those T-bills- we don’t NEED foreign capital to buy our T-bills, if there were a lack of buyers- the yields in T-bills would rise commensurate to need of capital and American’s would flood the T-bill market with cash. How does one compare the wealth of America at over 100 Trillion dollars to China and Japan with an estimated 30 Trillion combined ? America is over 300% richer in total wealth than the second and third largest economies in the world combined. Does one think for a moment that America’ needs a few hundred billion dollars from foreigners to buy up the T-bills issued by the Government ? It’s a fallacy about foreigners and T-bills that has been around for many years.
5 China can produce goods much cheaper than Japan, Europe or USA, it has the competitive edge.
Yes: so what. That is the way of free markets- this does not indicate future success or wealth- the fact that you produce manufactured goods indicate a lack of a sophisticated post-industrial economy. The real money, with hi-technology, percision goods and intellectual services- are dominated by the USA, Japan and Europe. These jobs and economies deliver higher wages and better standards of living. It is not a “comparative” advantage (Michael Porter) for intelligent and educated citizens in the West to produce shoes or bricks. The “competitive” edge for China remains with low-tier goods. The “competitive” edge in technology, music entertainment, robotics, software, engineering, high quality goods, law, etc, etc. Clearly remains with the USA, Japan and Europe.
6 China has made huge strides in high technology in an extremely short time
Yes, of course, the technology is stolen, back-engineered or purchased or acquired through foreign investment in China. It was not “originated” in China however.
7 With its cash reserves, China can keep its economy going by developing the rest of the country; it has the money, the skill and the man power.
The cash reserves are just that- reserves- they are not part of the budget for infrastructure spending or development- they are a buffer for a banking system sitting on a heap of bad loans. The development funds are coming from the regular budget of China- NOT so-called reserves which are mainly in fixed investments and therefore could not be used in any case.
Man power- yes there is ample manpower to dig ditches, there is NOT ample man power for sophisticated managerial duties or high technology- that is why there are over 250,000 foreigners working in such jobs.
Unlike USA it does not need to borrow or fiddle by printing monopoly money.
That’s right, there is plenty of money in Chinese savings accounts to allow the banks to lend money for development- why- ? because there is no national health care system, there are no wide-reaching pensions, there is no modern social security system, there is no deposit insurance, and most people don’t own their own homes- so there is nowhere safe to invest their money. There are also 900 million Chinese NOT sharing in the wealth of China. It’s amazing how one speaks about China in the media everywhere, America and China, it forgets that there are TWO China’s – one third of the people live in middle class China – that we refer to in popular media- however, TWO THIRDS live in country side poverty- many levels below the Chinese middle class of the first and second tier cities. This is glaring fact almost always ignored. China doesn’t have NEAR the funds, reserves or resources to pull up TWO THIRDS of her improvrished population- therefore- where are your measurements of success ? If you wish to measure only ONE THIRD- then- yes- great success- but this is only possible by IGNORING- TWO thirds of your population- where is the success there ? So, the fact is that more and more of the available investment funds and “wealth” of China is going to have to be diverted to the other two thirds and less to continue pushing up the one third who have now achieved a middle class status- this will begin to stagnate upward mobility.
In America, most people have the majority of their investment and savings in their homes, not savings accounts. American’s also pay out for health insurance and private pension funds- this allows for and keeps a much higher standard of living for Americans. When you do not have those investment vehicles available, like in China, the majority of people stick the money in savings- however, these high saving rates reflect a lack of fundamental structural financial underpinnings of a modern society rather than “disposable” income.
9 China has demonstrated its ability in expanding their economy at a rate never achieved in history. What took the west 200 years to achieve, China has done in it mere 20 years.
Several factual errors, the rate of Chinese economic growth is nothing new for countries who have started at a very low baseline. China’s growth creating a middle class out of one third of the population is not any faster than growth that took place in Japan, South Korea, Singapore- about 30 years (China 1978-2008) so there is no historical breakthrough by China. In addition, in creating its high rate of growth, it mainly relied on America- enormous purchasing of cheap goods from China gave it the investment money it needed to develop further. America grew and developed basically on its own, not by being an export driven economy or direct foreign investments- America’s was a home grown natural growth that emerged from all the right factors, from culture, freedom, liberty, private property- to modern business ideas and capital accumulation. It was America that both Japan and China leaned on for their own growth, acting as a pulling force for both countries.
China has the edge in every sense. When all these facts are added together, the readers can come to their own conclusion. Even the most pessimistic will agree that unless the entire Chinese nation gets addicted to cocaine, China cannot fail in expanding their economy.
There is no edge “IN EVERY SENSE”, China is a classic example of an export driven economy supplanted by extremely low wages. You are basically exchanging low wage labor for the creation of giving middle class status to one third of your population. As all developing countries typically experience hyper-growth during their first phases of development, this inevitably slows down once economic development brings up wages- making you a much less competitive exporter (i.e. Japan- exporting boom in the 1960’s, 1970s- 1980’s slowing down- now a dead economy, South Korea- an export boom in the late 1980’s and 1990’s- now growth much lower- as a result of a developed economy). Once hot cash settles down, wages rise, and foreign direct investment slows down due to higher wages- strong economies DO NOT continue at growth rates of 8-10% (as evidenced by Japan and South Korea). China is not following a different path- it’s just a question of time when a developed Chinese economy radically slows down.
1 China is sitting on the largest cash reserves- economist
LNR Review commentary:
The only reason countries like China, and others, have “cash reserves” is because those reserves are in a currency other than their own. The reason certain countries keep, dollars, pounds, yen, Euro is because they are the main currencies in which settlements between currencies are made- they are a “global” mediums of exchange- currencies of other nations, like China, are not used for settlements in international trade, thus, countries with currencies which have “little” confidence in them- MUST have some reserves in one of the reserve currencies. Therefore there is no need that countries like America keep “reserves” because America’s currency IS the major reserve currency of the world. There are two other main reasons why China keeps large reserves- it must maintain liquidity to its importers and exporters because the RMB is not used for trade; second- China requires large reserves because there are gigantic financial losses on paper due to bad bank debts- China’s “toxic debt” which were extended during the real estate boom and to bankrupt state companies – these loans have no hope of recovery and merely remain on the books- understated or non-performing but hidden due to the wide lack of transparency in the Chinese banking system. However, the Chinese government is aware of the gigantic size of non-performing loans with banks and therefore has built up reserves to protect against a widespread banking collapse. Bottom line, the huge reserves of China does not reflect strength, but structural weakness.
2 Chinese banks do not have toxic debt like USA
See above: Toxic debt is an understatement- China specifically keeps enormous reserves to cover trillions of RMB in bad debt- these loans were made under pressure to state owned companies which according to international accounting standards- are bankrupt, and bad real estate loans which are non-performing or made against real estate assets with wildly inflated value appraisals.
3 America is trillions in debt
Yes: so what. America’s wealth- including derivatives is easily over 100 Trillion- therefore, although debt is high in relation to past ratio’s, America compared to many countries has lower debt to wealth. If one compares “deficits” to GNP/GDP it’s true that the current spending will put the ratio of debt to GNP much higher than in recent years, although not even near what it was during WWII era, thus, we are not in the range of “bankrupting’ America as some pundits have declared. America’s wealth is NOT measured by your GNP- that is “America’s “ income- not it’s wealth- and this is where the mistakes in comparisons are being made in the media.
4. America owes trillions to China
Hardly true: America owes in financial instruments- near ONE trillion but not “trillion S “ with an S. Remember, many countries including China buy American treasury bonds because of confidence and strength in America- and many American investors buy bonds- however, most American investment is attracted to higher yielding investments which are too sophisticated for foreigners- thus, most American capital flows to other investment vehicles and not treasury bonds. Even now, the Government has had NO lack of buyers for American debt. The bottom line- the fact that other countries, including China DOES NOT indicate any lack of funding based in America- since the yields for T-Bills are comparatively low for Americans- they invest in other things- but the safety + yield of T-bills for foreigners are attractive and they would rather invest in America than anywhere else- this indicates strength and confidence in the American government and economy- NOT weakness. In other words, if China and other countries were NOT to invest in T-bills- there is more than ample capital in America to buy up those T-bills- we don’t NEED foreign capital to buy our T-bills, if there were a lack of buyers- the yields in T-bills would rise commensurate to need of capital and American’s would flood the T-bill market with cash. How does one compare the wealth of America at over 100 Trillion dollars to China and Japan with an estimated 30 Trillion combined ? America is over 300% richer in total wealth than the second and third largest economies in the world combined. Does one think for a moment that America’ needs a few hundred billion dollars from foreigners to buy up the T-bills issued by the Government ? It’s a fallacy about foreigners and T-bills that has been around for many years.
5 China can produce goods much cheaper than Japan, Europe or USA, it has the competitive edge.
Yes: so what. That is the way of free markets- this does not indicate future success or wealth- the fact that you produce manufactured goods indicate a lack of a sophisticated post-industrial economy. The real money, with hi-technology, percision goods and intellectual services- are dominated by the USA, Japan and Europe. These jobs and economies deliver higher wages and better standards of living. It is not a “comparative” advantage (Michael Porter) for intelligent and educated citizens in the West to produce shoes or bricks. The “competitive” edge for China remains with low-tier goods. The “competitive” edge in technology, music entertainment, robotics, software, engineering, high quality goods, law, etc, etc. Clearly remains with the USA, Japan and Europe.
6 China has made huge strides in high technology in an extremely short time
Yes, of course, the technology is stolen, back-engineered or purchased or acquired through foreign investment in China. It was not “originated” in China however.
7 With its cash reserves, China can keep its economy going by developing the rest of the country; it has the money, the skill and the man power.
The cash reserves are just that- reserves- they are not part of the budget for infrastructure spending or development- they are a buffer for a banking system sitting on a heap of bad loans. The development funds are coming from the regular budget of China- NOT so-called reserves which are mainly in fixed investments and therefore could not be used in any case.
Man power- yes there is ample manpower to dig ditches, there is NOT ample man power for sophisticated managerial duties or high technology- that is why there are over 250,000 foreigners working in such jobs.
Unlike USA it does not need to borrow or fiddle by printing monopoly money.
That’s right, there is plenty of money in Chinese savings accounts to allow the banks to lend money for development- why- ? because there is no national health care system, there are no wide-reaching pensions, there is no modern social security system, there is no deposit insurance, and most people don’t own their own homes- so there is nowhere safe to invest their money. There are also 900 million Chinese NOT sharing in the wealth of China. It’s amazing how one speaks about China in the media everywhere, America and China, it forgets that there are TWO China’s – one third of the people live in middle class China – that we refer to in popular media- however, TWO THIRDS live in country side poverty- many levels below the Chinese middle class of the first and second tier cities. This is glaring fact almost always ignored. China doesn’t have NEAR the funds, reserves or resources to pull up TWO THIRDS of her improvrished population- therefore- where are your measurements of success ? If you wish to measure only ONE THIRD- then- yes- great success- but this is only possible by IGNORING- TWO thirds of your population- where is the success there ? So, the fact is that more and more of the available investment funds and “wealth” of China is going to have to be diverted to the other two thirds and less to continue pushing up the one third who have now achieved a middle class status- this will begin to stagnate upward mobility.
In America, most people have the majority of their investment and savings in their homes, not savings accounts. American’s also pay out for health insurance and private pension funds- this allows for and keeps a much higher standard of living for Americans. When you do not have those investment vehicles available, like in China, the majority of people stick the money in savings- however, these high saving rates reflect a lack of fundamental structural financial underpinnings of a modern society rather than “disposable” income.
9 China has demonstrated its ability in expanding their economy at a rate never achieved in history. What took the west 200 years to achieve, China has done in it mere 20 years.
Several factual errors, the rate of Chinese economic growth is nothing new for countries who have started at a very low baseline. China’s growth creating a middle class out of one third of the population is not any faster than growth that took place in Japan, South Korea, Singapore- about 30 years (China 1978-2008) so there is no historical breakthrough by China. In addition, in creating its high rate of growth, it mainly relied on America- enormous purchasing of cheap goods from China gave it the investment money it needed to develop further. America grew and developed basically on its own, not by being an export driven economy or direct foreign investments- America’s was a home grown natural growth that emerged from all the right factors, from culture, freedom, liberty, private property- to modern business ideas and capital accumulation. It was America that both Japan and China leaned on for their own growth, acting as a pulling force for both countries.
China has the edge in every sense. When all these facts are added together, the readers can come to their own conclusion. Even the most pessimistic will agree that unless the entire Chinese nation gets addicted to cocaine, China cannot fail in expanding their economy.
There is no edge “IN EVERY SENSE”, China is a classic example of an export driven economy supplanted by extremely low wages. You are basically exchanging low wage labor for the creation of giving middle class status to one third of your population. As all developing countries typically experience hyper-growth during their first phases of development, this inevitably slows down once economic development brings up wages- making you a much less competitive exporter (i.e. Japan- exporting boom in the 1960’s, 1970s- 1980’s slowing down- now a dead economy, South Korea- an export boom in the late 1980’s and 1990’s- now growth much lower- as a result of a developed economy). Once hot cash settles down, wages rise, and foreign direct investment slows down due to higher wages- strong economies DO NOT continue at growth rates of 8-10% (as evidenced by Japan and South Korea). China is not following a different path- it’s just a question of time when a developed Chinese economy radically slows down.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
United Nations said what ?
WASHINGTON (AP) - The White House objected Thursday to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's description of the United States as a "deadbeat" donor to the world body.
MARCH 12
LNR’s author worked for the United Nations for 12 years. For the Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations to call the USA a “deadbeat” in paying its dues is one of the most incredible statements to come out of a Secretary General. As LNR’s author can personally testify, the UN is “the” “consummate” actor of corruption, greed, embezzlement, cheating, dirty politics and incompetency. In missions’ that the LRN author served in, i.e. the UNCRO (United Nations in Croatia Mission) was constantly being “saved” by monetary donations (voluntary contributions) by the United States to keep the mission going. The Mission in Bosnia where LNR’s author served in Sarajevo, Banja Luka, Tuzla, the mission would have collapsed without USA funding. Ban Ki Moon and his predecessors constantly fail to explain WHY the US is behind in contributions. It is because of the gigantic waste and corruption in various UN departments, the US must receive verifications before it can release funds to the UN.
If Ban Ki Moon and his predecessors ever find the strength and guts to clean up the UN, perhaps contributors would not be weary of giving their nations taxpayer dollars.
MARCH 12
LNR’s author worked for the United Nations for 12 years. For the Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations to call the USA a “deadbeat” in paying its dues is one of the most incredible statements to come out of a Secretary General. As LNR’s author can personally testify, the UN is “the” “consummate” actor of corruption, greed, embezzlement, cheating, dirty politics and incompetency. In missions’ that the LRN author served in, i.e. the UNCRO (United Nations in Croatia Mission) was constantly being “saved” by monetary donations (voluntary contributions) by the United States to keep the mission going. The Mission in Bosnia where LNR’s author served in Sarajevo, Banja Luka, Tuzla, the mission would have collapsed without USA funding. Ban Ki Moon and his predecessors constantly fail to explain WHY the US is behind in contributions. It is because of the gigantic waste and corruption in various UN departments, the US must receive verifications before it can release funds to the UN.
If Ban Ki Moon and his predecessors ever find the strength and guts to clean up the UN, perhaps contributors would not be weary of giving their nations taxpayer dollars.
LNR Right Again
Luko News Review (LNR) said more than two days ago, that because Mexico's drug
gangs had now become a serious threat to US Security, it is imperative that
the President sends a massive number of troops to the border. As LNR noted, it
would not be constitutional to use regular army troops for police action, and National Guard Units are not numerous enough and should remain ready to support
troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, Obama is "considering" moving "a small number" of National Guard Units to the border.
Well, as LNR likes to point out, it is the paramount job of the President to
protect that country, and a "small number" of troops are not enough. We must
take the threat seriously, and LNR advocated a large number of boots on the ground
because, just as Obama mentioned today, the border is extremely long. LNR also pointed out that employed is 'the' KEY factor in economic recovery, so why not
kill two birds with one stone, a massive hiring of people with some backgrounds in police, security, military, law enforcement, etc. and deploy them to the border. It is the DUTY of the President to take these measures quickly.
See LNR story below TWO days ago advocating sending troops to the border ( LNR is two days ahead of the President)
gangs had now become a serious threat to US Security, it is imperative that
the President sends a massive number of troops to the border. As LNR noted, it
would not be constitutional to use regular army troops for police action, and National Guard Units are not numerous enough and should remain ready to support
troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, Obama is "considering" moving "a small number" of National Guard Units to the border.
Well, as LNR likes to point out, it is the paramount job of the President to
protect that country, and a "small number" of troops are not enough. We must
take the threat seriously, and LNR advocated a large number of boots on the ground
because, just as Obama mentioned today, the border is extremely long. LNR also pointed out that employed is 'the' KEY factor in economic recovery, so why not
kill two birds with one stone, a massive hiring of people with some backgrounds in police, security, military, law enforcement, etc. and deploy them to the border. It is the DUTY of the President to take these measures quickly.
See LNR story below TWO days ago advocating sending troops to the border ( LNR is two days ahead of the President)
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Where's Your Boot Straps ????
Mental Stress Spirals with Economy
America's Billionaires Loosing Money
Hollywood Favorites Lose Money with Madoff
The White House Versus Jim Cramer and Rush Limbaugh
Economic Woes Lead to Mass Shootings
blah blah blah, the whimpering headlines continue. Is America that weak ? Cannot we not face a challenge and FIND our "bootstraps" and pull ourselves out ! Following
up on yesterdays story, where Obama should relinquish his salary in favor of $1 per year, should be telling American's to find your bootstraps and pull yourselves up !
work hard- find another job- create a job- work two jobs ! We are letting the bad news get the best of us. Obama is not being a strong leader to inspire America- he is instead- turning to socialism- the GOVERNMENT will save you, your homes, your companies, the car industry, the climate !!! how about hard work and sacrifice- he should be telling America to get innovative, work harder, and that America's government is going to double their hours and effort to get things going through good ideas. Obama is picking economic lightweights to manage the mess and it's NOT working and WILL NOT work as long as he keeps those lightweights on the job.
America is looking for inspired leadership of hope and ability to overcome, NOT, the government will send you a check so relax- we'll just print inflationary dollars and buy our way out of this mess. We need more- we need a real leader.
America's Billionaires Loosing Money
Hollywood Favorites Lose Money with Madoff
The White House Versus Jim Cramer and Rush Limbaugh
Economic Woes Lead to Mass Shootings
blah blah blah, the whimpering headlines continue. Is America that weak ? Cannot we not face a challenge and FIND our "bootstraps" and pull ourselves out ! Following
up on yesterdays story, where Obama should relinquish his salary in favor of $1 per year, should be telling American's to find your bootstraps and pull yourselves up !
work hard- find another job- create a job- work two jobs ! We are letting the bad news get the best of us. Obama is not being a strong leader to inspire America- he is instead- turning to socialism- the GOVERNMENT will save you, your homes, your companies, the car industry, the climate !!! how about hard work and sacrifice- he should be telling America to get innovative, work harder, and that America's government is going to double their hours and effort to get things going through good ideas. Obama is picking economic lightweights to manage the mess and it's NOT working and WILL NOT work as long as he keeps those lightweights on the job.
America is looking for inspired leadership of hope and ability to overcome, NOT, the government will send you a check so relax- we'll just print inflationary dollars and buy our way out of this mess. We need more- we need a real leader.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Relinquish Your Salary
It's time for the President to accept a $1 dollar a year salary. According to his
2007 tax returns, his estimated net worth is $7 million dollars. In these times of national crisis, it's important for our leaders to sympathize with the population in trouble and show solidarity and sacrifice. It is not uncommon for leaders to
"eat with the enlisted men" so to say and show the people that they are not afraid of coming down into the trenches with them.
As Nancy Pelosi is "upset" about not getting her military aircraft at her disposal 24 hours a day, She and many other rich Congress members should take a symbolic salary only as well as major pay cuts for ALL executives working for companies which are receiving government bailout money.
2007 tax returns, his estimated net worth is $7 million dollars. In these times of national crisis, it's important for our leaders to sympathize with the population in trouble and show solidarity and sacrifice. It is not uncommon for leaders to
"eat with the enlisted men" so to say and show the people that they are not afraid of coming down into the trenches with them.
As Nancy Pelosi is "upset" about not getting her military aircraft at her disposal 24 hours a day, She and many other rich Congress members should take a symbolic salary only as well as major pay cuts for ALL executives working for companies which are receiving government bailout money.
LNR Warned Long Ago of the Financial Tsunami
LNR already warned readers last year about the coming financial "Tsunami" and that
word was and is quite appropriate because we have only seen the tip of this Tsunami so far, the real damage is yet to come.
The mainstream media are often wrong on two points: First, that there is a "coming" global recession- ... it's already here. It is amazing that financial reporters
don't emphasize that numbers and stats that we use "today" to look at our financial
situation has a 1-3 month lag time. Second, there is suprisingly a lot of American
mainstream media claiming- 'recovery' in last quarter of 2009 or first quarter of
2010. This is a cruel joke, we are not anywhere near bottoming out, this has become a multi-pronged recession hitting the economy from several angles. LNR believes we "might" see the bottom begin by the end of 2009 and we will "ride" that bottom for at least through 2010, hence, any sort of recovery may begin in 2011 as inventories of consumables and housing are slowly used up, thereby requiring more- which in turn will provide the catalyst for a recovery.
Jobs are the key to recovery- as LNR has reported several times.
word was and is quite appropriate because we have only seen the tip of this Tsunami so far, the real damage is yet to come.
The mainstream media are often wrong on two points: First, that there is a "coming" global recession- ... it's already here. It is amazing that financial reporters
don't emphasize that numbers and stats that we use "today" to look at our financial
situation has a 1-3 month lag time. Second, there is suprisingly a lot of American
mainstream media claiming- 'recovery' in last quarter of 2009 or first quarter of
2010. This is a cruel joke, we are not anywhere near bottoming out, this has become a multi-pronged recession hitting the economy from several angles. LNR believes we "might" see the bottom begin by the end of 2009 and we will "ride" that bottom for at least through 2010, hence, any sort of recovery may begin in 2011 as inventories of consumables and housing are slowly used up, thereby requiring more- which in turn will provide the catalyst for a recovery.
Jobs are the key to recovery- as LNR has reported several times.
Monday, March 9, 2009
National Security Threat: South of the Border
America's intelligence agencies are identifying MEXICO as the second most
important security threat after Pakistan. Mexico "has become" destablized by the
drug cartels. Here is the opportunity for Obama to take bold action. Constrained
constitutionally from using US troops on American soil for police actions (Posse comitatus 1878) here is a great chance to secure our border as well as a massive employment action. Because of the long border and terrain with Mexico, aside from all the technology you can muster, you need "boots on the ground." So, Obama can create an auxillery border force (Homeland Border Security- HBS) and employ upwards of 400,000 unemployed Americans to patrol the border- both armed and unarmed.
It will take at least this number to both fight off the drug gangs as well as cover the vast territory. In this way we also avoid using the US military unconstitutionally as well as not sapping an already overstretched US army.
important security threat after Pakistan. Mexico "has become" destablized by the
drug cartels. Here is the opportunity for Obama to take bold action. Constrained
constitutionally from using US troops on American soil for police actions (Posse comitatus 1878) here is a great chance to secure our border as well as a massive employment action. Because of the long border and terrain with Mexico, aside from all the technology you can muster, you need "boots on the ground." So, Obama can create an auxillery border force (Homeland Border Security- HBS) and employ upwards of 400,000 unemployed Americans to patrol the border- both armed and unarmed.
It will take at least this number to both fight off the drug gangs as well as cover the vast territory. In this way we also avoid using the US military unconstitutionally as well as not sapping an already overstretched US army.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Mid East Nuclear Showdown One Step Closer
Iran tests missile which can reach Israel, we are another step closer
to nuclear war in the Middle East as LNR has already warned a few days
ago.
Remember, Israel keeps a "first strike" option open as stated by late
Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, "never never never again" he said about
any possibility of the Jewish race being wiped out. He clearly indicated
that they HAD the BOMB and would use it to protect Israel and defend against
any "mass" killing of Jews.
to nuclear war in the Middle East as LNR has already warned a few days
ago.
Remember, Israel keeps a "first strike" option open as stated by late
Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, "never never never again" he said about
any possibility of the Jewish race being wiped out. He clearly indicated
that they HAD the BOMB and would use it to protect Israel and defend against
any "mass" killing of Jews.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Two Negatives that are Positive
Trade deficit and global warming:
As global warming is a natural occurring event, there is no stopping it. So, we must stop wasting time trying to prevent it (of course affordable measures to clean our air and keep our water clean are needed) and instead find the positive factors of global warming, climate change and its inevitable effects. The effects are being extremely hyped by the media, in the context that even if it were true that global warming is accelerating (highly doubtful- because of imprecise methods of measurement and very dubious and complex computer modeling) it will take years to change temperatures by more than a few degrees. But, if temperatures are really rising over the long term, then great- we will have more of the earth’s landmass that is habitable and available for farming- this is good ! The same eco-radicals, basing their rants and raves on pseudo-science and the more legitimate people who joined the chorus because of the money to be made, in the past lamented the earth’s overcrowding and falling food supply (all false alarms) are now against the obvious solution- GLOBAL WARMING !! with warmer temperatures people can alleviate overcrowding by settling the northern hemisphere and feed people more easily with all the extra farm land- so where is the problem ?
Trade deficits are not bad, as long as you can pay for them, and we can, buying more than you are selling is absolutely NO indicator of the health of an economy. If your nation is rich and mainly produces and consumes your own products and services, as the US does, there is then plenty of wealth to buy even more products from overseas. In fact, although America in absolute terms is the largest exporter and importer in the world, America itself produces 2/3rd s of its own consumption and is NOT an export based economy as other leading economies are i.e. China, Japan, German, South Korea, Canada, etc. So comparing the import numbers and the trade deficit with other countries is comparing apples and oranges- they are export driven economies since their internal markets are not strong enough to consume all that they produce. America is service- based production and thus it easily consumes all it manufactures- thereby requiring imports. There is NOTHING wrong with that. In addition, we import products that are produced abroad more cheaply which in great effect- INCREASES the standard of living of all Americans. When you buy the SAME product cheaper from overseas, it means that prices are lower for American consumers, thus lower economic classes in America can afford more and better things- thus- raising their standard of living. Ten years ago it was only luxury homes that you would find a wine fridge in, whereas today its common place and they are sold very cheaply at Home Depot and Lowes, etc. Big screen TV’s, electronics, etc. are within reach of MOST Americans- they are NOT within the reach of lower classes in other countries. The trade deficit for America is a NET plus because you are raising the standard of living for 300 million Americans- instead of trying to raise the standard of 5-10 million Americans who might have otherwise produced those products in America. If we produced those products- yes, maybe there would be an extra 5-10 million jobs in manufacturing- but those products would be priced out of reach for most Americans, thus, the standard of living would be much lower for MOST of America. Embrace trade deficits and global warming, they are good things !
As global warming is a natural occurring event, there is no stopping it. So, we must stop wasting time trying to prevent it (of course affordable measures to clean our air and keep our water clean are needed) and instead find the positive factors of global warming, climate change and its inevitable effects. The effects are being extremely hyped by the media, in the context that even if it were true that global warming is accelerating (highly doubtful- because of imprecise methods of measurement and very dubious and complex computer modeling) it will take years to change temperatures by more than a few degrees. But, if temperatures are really rising over the long term, then great- we will have more of the earth’s landmass that is habitable and available for farming- this is good ! The same eco-radicals, basing their rants and raves on pseudo-science and the more legitimate people who joined the chorus because of the money to be made, in the past lamented the earth’s overcrowding and falling food supply (all false alarms) are now against the obvious solution- GLOBAL WARMING !! with warmer temperatures people can alleviate overcrowding by settling the northern hemisphere and feed people more easily with all the extra farm land- so where is the problem ?
Trade deficits are not bad, as long as you can pay for them, and we can, buying more than you are selling is absolutely NO indicator of the health of an economy. If your nation is rich and mainly produces and consumes your own products and services, as the US does, there is then plenty of wealth to buy even more products from overseas. In fact, although America in absolute terms is the largest exporter and importer in the world, America itself produces 2/3rd s of its own consumption and is NOT an export based economy as other leading economies are i.e. China, Japan, German, South Korea, Canada, etc. So comparing the import numbers and the trade deficit with other countries is comparing apples and oranges- they are export driven economies since their internal markets are not strong enough to consume all that they produce. America is service- based production and thus it easily consumes all it manufactures- thereby requiring imports. There is NOTHING wrong with that. In addition, we import products that are produced abroad more cheaply which in great effect- INCREASES the standard of living of all Americans. When you buy the SAME product cheaper from overseas, it means that prices are lower for American consumers, thus lower economic classes in America can afford more and better things- thus- raising their standard of living. Ten years ago it was only luxury homes that you would find a wine fridge in, whereas today its common place and they are sold very cheaply at Home Depot and Lowes, etc. Big screen TV’s, electronics, etc. are within reach of MOST Americans- they are NOT within the reach of lower classes in other countries. The trade deficit for America is a NET plus because you are raising the standard of living for 300 million Americans- instead of trying to raise the standard of 5-10 million Americans who might have otherwise produced those products in America. If we produced those products- yes, maybe there would be an extra 5-10 million jobs in manufacturing- but those products would be priced out of reach for most Americans, thus, the standard of living would be much lower for MOST of America. Embrace trade deficits and global warming, they are good things !
Friday, March 6, 2009
America Drops Atomic Bomb on Iran (almost)
Brent Scowcroft, former general and National Security Advisor to President's Ford and Bush (and serving in the White House as far back as Nixon) and Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter and wanna-be successor to
Kissinger as America's foremost foreign policy expert, have (almost) dropped the
BOMB on Iran.
In a startling and shocking move, Scowcroft and Brzezinski, acting as an indirect
protocol for President Obama, announce to the world and Iran, that Israel is now under America's nuclear umbrella. In a bold move to counter Iran and the prospect that a nuclear first strike by Iran would wipe out Israel, thereby negating any retaliatory action against Iran, America is making clear that indeed a retaliatory nuclear strike on Iran would take place by the United States. Clearly this move is intended to block Iran and any notions it had of using a first strike against Israel which without American retaliation, would leave Iran otherwise unharmed by such a move against Israel.
Reported in today's press
WASHINGTON —" The United States should extend its nuclear umbrella to its Middle East allies and offer enriched civilian-use uranium to Iran and other countries in the region to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, two respected former presidential national-security advisors told senators Thursday.
Brzezinski suggested that before any serious discussions with Tehran , the United States should say that it's prepared to extend its nuclear umbrella to friends and allies in the Middle East ."
It's well known that both Brzezinski and Scowcroft are strong and early supporters of Obama and have been closely advising him since early on in the elections last year. The weight of both these men add legitimacy and credibility to this new major policy move by the United States. It is a clever move by Obama because using Scowcroft and Brzezinski as a "secondary protocol" it allows this bold counter-move by the US to be announced without a presidential directive, order or vetting through the State Department or Congress. It is also a policy which, being delivered via secondary protocol, can be denied distanced or denied by the White House, if Obama wishes so. However, Iran will clearly get the message of the new strategic stance of the US vis-a-vis Israel and this move might be enough to halt Iran in its tracks in regards to its nuclear first strike plans against Israel. This bold stroke is also intended to forestall an impending Israeli attack on Iran by extending the US nuclear umbrella to Iran has America has done for Japan, South Korea and other allies.
It should also be noted that both Scowcroft and Brzezinski are prominent members of the Trilateral Commission and the Council for Foreign Relations, thereby further emboldening their statements by virtue of the de facto approval of America's two most powerful foreign policy entities outside the White House.
Kissinger as America's foremost foreign policy expert, have (almost) dropped the
BOMB on Iran.
In a startling and shocking move, Scowcroft and Brzezinski, acting as an indirect
protocol for President Obama, announce to the world and Iran, that Israel is now under America's nuclear umbrella. In a bold move to counter Iran and the prospect that a nuclear first strike by Iran would wipe out Israel, thereby negating any retaliatory action against Iran, America is making clear that indeed a retaliatory nuclear strike on Iran would take place by the United States. Clearly this move is intended to block Iran and any notions it had of using a first strike against Israel which without American retaliation, would leave Iran otherwise unharmed by such a move against Israel.
Reported in today's press
WASHINGTON —" The United States should extend its nuclear umbrella to its Middle East allies and offer enriched civilian-use uranium to Iran and other countries in the region to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, two respected former presidential national-security advisors told senators Thursday.
Brzezinski suggested that before any serious discussions with Tehran , the United States should say that it's prepared to extend its nuclear umbrella to friends and allies in the Middle East ."
It's well known that both Brzezinski and Scowcroft are strong and early supporters of Obama and have been closely advising him since early on in the elections last year. The weight of both these men add legitimacy and credibility to this new major policy move by the United States. It is a clever move by Obama because using Scowcroft and Brzezinski as a "secondary protocol" it allows this bold counter-move by the US to be announced without a presidential directive, order or vetting through the State Department or Congress. It is also a policy which, being delivered via secondary protocol, can be denied distanced or denied by the White House, if Obama wishes so. However, Iran will clearly get the message of the new strategic stance of the US vis-a-vis Israel and this move might be enough to halt Iran in its tracks in regards to its nuclear first strike plans against Israel. This bold stroke is also intended to forestall an impending Israeli attack on Iran by extending the US nuclear umbrella to Iran has America has done for Japan, South Korea and other allies.
It should also be noted that both Scowcroft and Brzezinski are prominent members of the Trilateral Commission and the Council for Foreign Relations, thereby further emboldening their statements by virtue of the de facto approval of America's two most powerful foreign policy entities outside the White House.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Stock Market.. Almost at Collapse
The stock market is days or weeks from an all out collapse, perhaps falling as low as 2,500- 3,000 level which will induce further economic disasters.
There are two possible emergency solutions: As done in the past, albeit, very quietly, the White House can "lean' heavily on big funds (like California Pension Funds) to aggressively "buy" into the market. Otherwise, the government will have to "halt" trading or itself- set up a third party buyer fund to buy into the market itself. Allowing the stock market to continue its free-fall will extend the depth and breadth of the recession into at least 2012 with uncontrollable severity.
There are two possible emergency solutions: As done in the past, albeit, very quietly, the White House can "lean' heavily on big funds (like California Pension Funds) to aggressively "buy" into the market. Otherwise, the government will have to "halt" trading or itself- set up a third party buyer fund to buy into the market itself. Allowing the stock market to continue its free-fall will extend the depth and breadth of the recession into at least 2012 with uncontrollable severity.
Middle East Nuclear Catastrophe
Unless Hillary Clinton, or Obama himself turns the pressure on Israel,
Syria and Iran, LNR has learned of a probable massive Israeli strike on
Iran planned for no later than mid-June. This strike, however, will not
be effective as Iran now has multiple projects which will allow for
a retaliatory strike on Israel.
Saudi Arabia is now plowing countries like Egypt and Syria with cash
hoping to enlist them in efforts to restrain Iran. There is also an
alternative Mossad plan in place to make a massive strike at Iran's
leadership in the hopes of being left with moderates who have already
stated that they would NOT use the "bomb" against Israel.
Syria and Iran, LNR has learned of a probable massive Israeli strike on
Iran planned for no later than mid-June. This strike, however, will not
be effective as Iran now has multiple projects which will allow for
a retaliatory strike on Israel.
Saudi Arabia is now plowing countries like Egypt and Syria with cash
hoping to enlist them in efforts to restrain Iran. There is also an
alternative Mossad plan in place to make a massive strike at Iran's
leadership in the hopes of being left with moderates who have already
stated that they would NOT use the "bomb" against Israel.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Do any of the Democrats pay their taxes ?
Another Obama nominee is caught as not having reported income, thus requiring him to pay over $10,000 USD in back taxes. It is incredible that from such a small sampling of major democratic political players, we have found so many tax cheats. If this small sampling is ‘any’ indication of the number of high government officials who do not pay their fair share, then LNR finds it absolutely unacceptable and hypocritical that the Obama administration is going after Americans who are “supposedly” hiding taxable income in Swiss banks. Perhaps the Obama administration should audit all its employees FIRST and pick up extra revenue by cleaning its own house before pushing the Swiss government to turn over bank records of Americans.
NY waiting 14 inches of snow- I want my Global Warming ! Increase the Co2
Here we are, global warming rate increasing rapidly, icebergs melting away… could someone please tell New York !
The clear “evidence” which is our weather, clearly points out that not only are the so-called global warming propaganda nuts wrong about global climate change being “man-made” but that even “global warming” is in question. If they are making the case, which is baseless scientifically, that temperatures are increasing more rapidly than thought before, why are we in the second year of some of the coldest temperatures on record ? Why, because they are WRONG and Mother Nature is right- it is her that is causing the changes of temperatures, up and down. Is nothing so clear as when it is right in front of you for you yourself to observe ? The weather these past two years is cooling down, not up. Will the public believe “advanced weather forecasting” telling us what temperatures are going to be in 20 years- yet they cannot tell us what the weather will be next month- yet alone often getting next WEEKs weather wrong. Global warming hype is a money making, headline grabbing, job getting , flat earth science lie.
The clear “evidence” which is our weather, clearly points out that not only are the so-called global warming propaganda nuts wrong about global climate change being “man-made” but that even “global warming” is in question. If they are making the case, which is baseless scientifically, that temperatures are increasing more rapidly than thought before, why are we in the second year of some of the coldest temperatures on record ? Why, because they are WRONG and Mother Nature is right- it is her that is causing the changes of temperatures, up and down. Is nothing so clear as when it is right in front of you for you yourself to observe ? The weather these past two years is cooling down, not up. Will the public believe “advanced weather forecasting” telling us what temperatures are going to be in 20 years- yet they cannot tell us what the weather will be next month- yet alone often getting next WEEKs weather wrong. Global warming hype is a money making, headline grabbing, job getting , flat earth science lie.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Fiscal Stimulus NOT Solution
The wide ranging, and now ever increasing, fiscal stimulus program touted by some in Congress and President Obama is not and cannot be the solution. Not only will it not provide short-term recovery, it will bankrupt the government (it's already technically bankrupt but it will exceed the legitimacy of credits extended) cause very high and possibly catastrophic inflation and leave America with no tools to enact recovery.
As LNR has stated several times before, the First key is jobs- a massive job creation/retention program to be implemented now- without jobs you have the three
L's-
Lack of consumer spending (this drives 2/3rd of our economy)
Lack of savings (savings provide cheap money for banks to lend- instead of getting
expensive - inflationary printed money from the government)
Lack of homebuyers - jobless people cannot afford nor qualify to buy homes which
would be a key to asset and equity recovery)
Once you get the minimum of five million jobs created/retained needed to stabilize the economic situation, you revive the property market with the following program:
A. Back up new mortgages for five years with government guarantees
B. Lower payments by amortizing loans over 50-60 years instead of 30 years
C. 5 year low fixed rates- like many other countries already have been doing
D. Credit checks/ income check by banks- the runaway lending did not go wrong
because people lost jobs and could not pay their mortgages, it was caused by the banks going crazy in loaning low-doc and no-doc money ( low document and no document loans- where no credit or income checks were done)
These two programs would stabilize the economic situation by year's end if implemented now.
As LNR has stated several times before, the First key is jobs- a massive job creation/retention program to be implemented now- without jobs you have the three
L's-
Lack of consumer spending (this drives 2/3rd of our economy)
Lack of savings (savings provide cheap money for banks to lend- instead of getting
expensive - inflationary printed money from the government)
Lack of homebuyers - jobless people cannot afford nor qualify to buy homes which
would be a key to asset and equity recovery)
Once you get the minimum of five million jobs created/retained needed to stabilize the economic situation, you revive the property market with the following program:
A. Back up new mortgages for five years with government guarantees
B. Lower payments by amortizing loans over 50-60 years instead of 30 years
C. 5 year low fixed rates- like many other countries already have been doing
D. Credit checks/ income check by banks- the runaway lending did not go wrong
because people lost jobs and could not pay their mortgages, it was caused by the banks going crazy in loaning low-doc and no-doc money ( low document and no document loans- where no credit or income checks were done)
These two programs would stabilize the economic situation by year's end if implemented now.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
.JPG)
