Russia Resurgent Superpower ? Or Smoke and Mirrors

The multiple reports and end-of-year wisdoms of Russia "gaining" strength are greatly overblown. LNR has reported that indeed, Russia has taken a more aggressive stance, but, that "was" backed up by oil at $147 a barrel.

Now, that oil has tumbled tremendously, down to $37-45 per barrel (completely crushing the ridiculous announcements of a global shortage of oil due to unmet demands- there is no current or foreseen oil shortage in the near or medium term future) Russia is bracing for social riots, massive cuts in future military spending and a collapse in their financial and stock markets. Hardly a resurgent superpower- more like the last whimper of a corrupt, self-contained post-communist failure of an economy reliant on oil and natural resource revenues to infuse cash into an otherwise, dead and dying economy. Along with a rapidly declining population, the high oil prices of last year gave another breath to a dying patient- that is all.

For even Putin's adventurism this year amounted to little- a few naval ships visiting Venezuela, some Russian bombers back on air patrols and an easy win against a tiny mouse known as Georgia, it hardly amounts to anything near a resurgent strategic posture. Russia did not roll back NATO moving ever closer to the Motherland, nor stopping the planned and ongoing anti-missile defense system being set up in Eastern Europe, nor stopping American dominance in the Middle East, it was still an overall clear victory for NATO and America, not Russia.

Russia "gaining power" is all smoke and mirrors.

俄国复活的超级大国？ 或者用虚假消息骗人 俄国"倍数报告和年底wisdoms; gaining" 力量很大地是过分的。 LNR的确报告了那，俄国采取了更加积极的姿态，但是， " was" 支持由油在$147每桶。 现在，那油巨大地翻滚了，下来到$37-45每桶(完全地击碎油全球性短缺的可笑公告由于为满足的要求没有潮流或预见的油短缺在近或中期未来)俄国为社会暴乱支撑，巨型在他们的财政和股市上削减未来军费和崩溃。 坚硬一个复活的超级大国更象经济的腐败，独立性的共产主义之后疏忽的最后抽泣倚赖于油和自然资源收支否则灌输现金入，死去和垂死的经济。 与迅速地人口下降一起，去年的高油价给了另一呼吸是全部的一名死的患者。 为甚而Putin' s冒险主义今年共计一点访问委内瑞拉，一些俄国轰炸机的一些艘军舰在空中巡逻，并且反对叫作佐治亚的一只微小的老鼠的一次容易的胜利，它几乎不共计任何东西在一个复活的战略姿势附近。 俄国没有滚动移动离祖国较近，亦不停止计划的和持续的反导弹防御系统的北约被设定在东欧，亦不停止美国优势在中东，它仍然是北约和美国的，不是俄国一次整体清楚的胜利。 俄国" 获取power" 是所有用虚假消息骗人。

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

The Krushchev Challenge/ The Obama Kennedy Parallel

It is well known that President Kennedy was considered, by our Cold War foes as "weak" because he was young and inexperienced. In addition, Kennedy did not have a political establishment behind him, neither in the Congress or business community.

For these reasons, Krushchev thought it an opportune time to expand the Soviet Empire and encroach on American stomping grounds around the world, threatening vital sea lanes, Berlin and the ultimate challenge in Cuba.

The point being, not that Kennedy handled Krushchev well enough, but that the very election of Kennedy was seen by opponents as the right opportunity to "increase" their power, and "decrease" American power. One must remember that Kennedy was elected just after Eisenhower, who was (Eisenhower) seen by America's opponents as a successful general at the helm of America, respected by the military and therefore not to be pushed, lest a general is quickly ready for a war- so thought the Soviets. So when Kennedy was elected, it was the right timing for the Krushchev Challenge.

Now, 46 years later, with multiple hot spots, a resurgent Russia, as well as others, foes are licking their chops at the prospect of an outsider (Kennedy was the first Catholic and Obama being the first Black president), young, inexperienced, without a political establishment. The Vice-President elect, Biden, himself said during the campaign that Obama would be challenged by other countries. Obama must now prepare for his own "Krushchev" challenge. There are multiple threats which may increase in volitility and with Obama in office, may spur further adventurism from Russia, Iran (especially an Israel-Iran showdown) Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela and North Korea where radical generals are already wrestling for power amid a sick or already dead Kim Jong-Il.

The Kruschev challenge will test the resolve and capacity of Obama as it did Kennedy, for no matter all the experts around him, as Kennedy had Dean Rusk and Robert McNamara (known as the Whiz Kids) and now Obama has Hillary Clinton and so-called foreign policy expert and VP Joe Biden, the ultimate decisions will be made by Obama.

As the Cuban missile crisis defined the Kennedy administration, so to will this coming "Krushchev Challenge" define Obama's first four years in office.


Krushchev挑战Obama肯尼迪平行 由我们的冷战仇敌是知名的肯尼迪总统被考虑了，作为" weak" 因为他是年轻和无经验的。 另外，肯尼迪没有在他之后的政治创立，不国会或工商业界的。 因此， Krushchev在古巴认为它一个时机扩展苏联帝国和侵犯在美国重踏地面环球，威胁重要海上航线、柏林和最后挑战。 是的点，没有那肯尼迪处理了Krushchev还好，但是那肯尼迪的竞选由对手看见作为对"的正确的机会; increase" 他们的力量和" decrease" 美国力量。 一个人必须记得肯尼迪在艾森豪威尔之后被选举了， (艾森豪威尔)由America'看见; 作为一位成功的将军的s对手美国的舵的，尊敬由军事并且不被推挤，唯恐将军迅速准备好战争如此认为苏维埃。 因此，当肯尼迪被选举了，它是Krushchev挑战的正确的时间。 现在， 46年后，与多热点，复活的俄国，并且其他，舔他们的剁在局外人的远景(肯尼迪是第一的天主教徒和的Obama第一位黑人总统)，年轻人，无经验，不用政治创立。 副总统选举， Biden，他自己说在竞选期间Obama将由其他国家挑战。 Obama必须现在为他自己的"做准备; Krushchev" 挑战。 有也许增加在volitility和与Obama在办公室的多个威胁，也许激励从俄国，伊朗(特别是以色列伊朗摊牌)伊拉克、阿富汗、委内瑞拉和北朝鲜的进一步冒险主义根本将军为在病残或已经死的金正日之中的地方力量已经搏斗。 Kruschev挑战将测试决心，并且Obama容量，它在他附近做了肯尼迪，没有问题的所有专家，作为肯尼迪有罗伯特・麦克纳马拉教务长Rusk和(叫作专家哄骗)和Obama现在有希拉里・克林顿，并且所谓的对外政策专家和VP乔Biden，最终决定将由Obama做。 古巴导弹危机定义了肯尼迪政府，因此愿这以后的" Krushchev Challenge" 定义Obama' s第一四工作年份。


Right to Self-Defense: It's the LAW

It is amazing how the recent Israeli "counter-attack" on Hamas in Gaza has brought the Arab world off its feet, yet, during the last several days in which Hamas was openly shelling Israel, there was barely a peep from anyone except the U.S. Both international law and the United Nations Charter contain the "right to self-defense" and Israel was clearly exercising that right after several days of warnings to Hamas. Why is it that the Arab community and the United Nations did not condemn Hamas katusha strikes into Israel- as they were "untargeted" strikes meant to cause death and mayhem to civilians- a clear war crime, yet, those actions by Hamas made barely a headline. LNR does believe that Israel always exercises its power fairly, however, in this case, the belligerents were duly warned and the attack was aimed at Hamas security forces. LNR's author, as a trained and experienced international law of war expert and human rights expert, with over 12 years of war time experience in the Former Yugoslavia with the United Nations, does not believe that the collateral deaths of civilians during the Israeli attacks constitute an "excessive use" of force, as declared by UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon. Ban-Ki Moon has ZERO experience in a war zone, nor any human rights or international law education or experience, thus, his opinion on "excessive use of force" is "unqualified."

正确对自卫： It' s法律 它怎么是惊人的最近以色列" 反attack" 在哈姆斯在加沙带来了阿拉伯世界它的脚，在最近几天在哪哈姆斯公开轰击以色列，几乎没有有从任何人的窥视除了美国。 两国际法和联合国宪章包含" 正确对自已defense" 并且以色列明显地行使那在几天警告之后给哈姆斯。 为什么是它阿拉伯社区和联合国没有谴责哈姆斯katusha触击进入以色列，因为他们是" untargeted" 罢工意味导致死亡，并且对平民的打斗流血清楚的战争犯罪，由哈姆斯的那些行动几乎没有做了一个标题。 LNR相信以色列相当总是行使它的力量，然而，在这种情况下，交战国交付地被警告了，并且攻击是瞄准的哈姆斯安全部队。 LNR' s作者，作为战争专家和人权专家一部训练的和有经验的国际法，有在12年的战争期间经验期间在前南斯拉夫和联合国，不相信平民抵押死亡在以色列攻击期间的构成" 过份use" 力量，如宣称由联合国禁令Ki Moon秘书长。 禁令Ki月亮有零的经验在战区，亦不所有人权或国际法教育或者经验，因而，他的关于"的看法; 对force"的过份用途; 是" unqualified."


It's So Cold, Where is the Global Warming ?

So many areas of the world is experiencing record cold temperatures and snow fall, they may be hoping that global warming can hurry up and warm temperatures a bit. LNR is all for global warming so that we can enjoy the northern parts of the hemisphere with warmer temperatures. Imagine all the extra food we will have globally with millions of hectares which are now frozen tundra turned into fertile farm land. Resources, supposedly now in short supply (another great myth of popular pseudo-science) will have a big boost with global warming as new lands become available for extraction. Climate change is a natural event which can be nor stopped nor encouraged by man. The works of man are so insignificant in scale to the natural dynamics of the earth that thinly supported theories of man being the main cause of climate change is absolutely laughable yet frightening how many people believe this sort of flat-earth science.

It' s如此寒冷，在哪里是全球性变暖？ 世界的许多区域体验记录冷的温度，并且雪秋天，他们也许希望全球性变暖可能赶紧和温暖的温度位。 LNR是全部全球性变暖的，以便我们可以享受半球的北部与更加温暖的温度的。 想象我们全球性地将饮用与成千上万公顷现在是结冰的寒带草原把变成肥沃农场土地的所有额外食物。 资源，推测在供应不足(普遍的假科学另一个了不起的神话)现在将有与全球性变暖的一个大助力，新大陆变得可利用为提取。 气候变化是可以是亦不停止亦不鼓励由人的一个自然事件。 人工作是很无意义的在标度对稀薄地支持是理论的人主要起因的气候变化是绝对可笑的地球，吓唬多少的自然动力学人民相信这类平地球科学。

They're Cutting Too FAST !

LNR already weeks ago, warned that the Feds should not cut rates so much, so fast. Keeping liquidity yes, but LNR warned not to repeat the Bank of Japan’s mistakes in the late 1980’s of cutting the discount rate too much too fast, lest it gave away its most powerful weapon to fight recession. The Fed discount rate will soon be 0.5% leaving little room to fall further. In several articles, LNR has counseled the rapid and massive creation of jobs as a natural factor in reviving the economy with minimal inflation and long term benefits. Throwing “trillions” of dollars into the economy in the form of cheap credit will NOT give short, medium OR long term growth, it will only result in inflation. Employment offers a whole set of benefits that filter through the economy naturally and creates stable long term growth as well as stemming the current downward spiral.

Obama is working on creating 2.5 million jobs, he’s wrong, we’re looking at a need to create 5-7 million new jobs over the next two years to have the desired effects.

Real Estate Crash Dirty Little Secret

The media has been blaming the average home owner who is loosing their home for bringing down prices of the real estate market. Actually, it was the investors who were flipping homes that "dumped" homes on the market beginning in late 2006 that turned this market. In some places, like Phoenix Arizona, speculative home flipping investors accounted for up to 40% of all home sales. Individual home owners who are now going into foreclosure are just a a byproduct of the home flippers that created the bubble, and then popped it.

Thank You Xie Xie

Thanks to those who came to the special art show, especially our supporters from the China TEFL program and our special supporters in Guangzhou. Xie Xie

The Comments

Global Warming
Oops, I guess no one told Houston Texas. Houston gets snow, I guess global warming acts in reverse in warm climates such as Houston. Climate change, of course, the climate is not static, its dynamic and is always changing, just as it did before man walked on the earth. The climate has changed on mars, I don’t’ see many cars there though, I wonder how that climate changed ? Maybe natural forces ? Maybe here too, but don’t tell Houston.

Most Big-Banks Bankrupt
Of course, if big banks kept all their cash, how could they make profits ? Of course banks don’t hold much cash, they loan it out to make money, that’s how banks work. So, when there is a financial panic, the system seizes up and LNR already explained about fractional reserve banking. Banks going bankrupt overnight is not a surprise but an expectation in a financial panic when fractional reserve banking is used.

LNR 100% Correct about Oil, Most others were totally wrong

LNR a couple of months ago commented that the high prices of oil did not reflect “any” shortages of oil supplies, but rather pure speculative profits. For most of last year, almost universally, respected media reported that- these high prices can’t be speculation alone, the high prices are a function of increasing demand from China and other growing countries and we will soon run out of supplies ! Wow, they were ALL wrong again. LNR stated that its independent research indicated that current supplies, without any new discoveries- which there will be, would last at least another 50 years even at the present increasing consumption rate. Therefore, LNR had no doubts that the world’s oil needs and supplies were hardly running out- as most of the media was stating. Oil prices continue to drop this week.

RATE Cuts a disaster !!

LNR never endorsed bank rate cuts. Keeping liquidity yes, but rate cuts- ! ? no, that will lead to de-flation as LNR warned- we cannot allow America to slip into a deflationary death spiral as Japan did many years ago and are still feeling the effects today. That Japanese deflationary spiral ended the Rising Sun into a quick sunset. American banks need to approve qualified loan applicants, while at the same time, extend mortgage ammoritization over 45 and 50 years to make the loans affordable, yet not push down interest rates where the central bank will no longer have any effective economic tools to adjust the economy.

Condoleezza Rice

Ms. Rice was not impressive in security or international affairs these last few years. Probably, as LNR author knew her personally years ago, her expertise is in Russian/Soviet affairs. She was a university professor with no foreign policy or government experience. This lacking, you get bad results.

Obama Behind the LNR Curve

As usual, not even a President elect could be out in front of LNR. LNR weeks ago informed readers that jobs- created- is the key and of those jobs- concentration should be on infrastructure and alternative energy.

Obama today, caught up with LNR, announcing his focus on new jobs to be infrastructure and green-jobs.

Presidential Trinity

The new administration gives you three presidents, not one. With Bill Richards to be commerce secretary and Hillary for Sec. of State, along with President Elect Obama, you are getting two almost-potential Presidents along with Obama in the cabinet. Talk about star-power. Can a Presidential Trinity make 3 Presidents better than one ?

Mrs. Clinton as Secretary of State doesn’t add up to a Hillary of Beans

LNR’s author has walked the walk, not just talked the talk. Hillary has NO professional foreign affairs experience and by her own admission, on many occasions, professed her expertise to be in domestic affairs. To pick Hillary on her name alone is not good enough for a position like that of Secretary of State, where expertise in foreign affairs is paramount. She has not walked the walk.

Correction

谢谢给我们的中国的读者

xie xie GZ

Sarkozy

法国， Sarkozy的总统，在一个大亚洲国家的内部政治不应该介入。

Is Sarkozy Nuts ?

After France's record in Africa, especially Algeria, France has the "gall" (not Charles De Gaulle) to interfere in the internal relations of a large Asian country ? On what basis does France accord itself ? Even the U.N. who, of any other international body, would be concerned does not take such "colonial" actions as that of France.

Vive la "France be quiet"

谢谢给我们的瓷的读者

Deflationary Death Spiral

Consumer prices have fallen more than ever since 1947. Well, that is scary, if the U.S. goes into a deflationary spiral- as did Japan in the 90's, then the game is definately over. Japan's deflationary cycle destroyed Japan as a world economic power, and extinguished its rise in the late 80's into what people mistakenly thought was going to be become the next world superpower.

However, LNR does not believe that the U.S. is in a broad-based deflationary cycle yet, the records reflect a huge drop in oil and real estate prices. Obviously products related to housing- i.e. home improvement, furniture, etc. might reflect small decreases in prices, but, as of yet, deflation is not broad based. This is all the more why the new administration must create a massive five million (5) job program through government hiring (for infrastructure) and massive contracts to the alternative energy industry- creating enormous wind and sun power farms across the sun belts. This, ONE key program- of jobs- can prevent a deflationary death spiral.

It's All in the Head

Mainstream media is really missing a big point... the financial disaster is being compounded by the psychological terror experienced by workers, consumers and bank customers, and their actions- based on their mentality of fear, is destroying the stock market and banks. More needs to be done by the government, including state and city, and notable personalities to keep people spending and not withdrawing their money from financial institutions. The Hollywood bubble heads finally have a chance to help out by demonstrating that they are not withdrawing their millions from banks, etc. People like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet, Bill Clinton, Schwarznegger, etc. need to be included in some high profile public campaigns of ads, and going on talk shows to reassure people and let the American public know that they are keeping their money in banks.

NO Shame for Financial CEO’s

CEO’s of financial institutes who took big risks with mortgage derivatives are apparently not ashamed of driving an entire integral component of our economy into the ground. There is no mass wave of resignations or suicides as occurred during the great depression, or what you would see in many Asian countries, i.e. Japan.
CEO’s have learned that America rewards- non-performance, this encourages the wrong breed of business leaders to take the reigns. One should measure performance on the actions taken during hard times, because it’s easy to be a great CEO when the economy is booming.

LNR Right on the "GOLD"

There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.
The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.
Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months.
To his credit, Schiff isn't declaring victory, noting "100% of my forecast hasn't panned out," most notably "a major collapse in the dollar" that leads to a spike commodity prices.
As discussed in the accompanying video, Schiff believes the recent dollar rally and commodity price weakness will prove temporary. Most troubling, he says the "economic crisis is only just beginning."


Note the prediction of Peter Schiff,- remember LNR’s prediction about Gold at $2,000 an ounce. As Schiff predicts, once underlying pressures of a broad economic collapse in the U.S. is acknowledged, investors will dump the dollar and many will seek haven in Gold- this is when LNR proves, once again, that the mainstream media is either WRONG or LATE with hot news and economic forecasting.

INVADERS: 2040

Imagine, you are a relatively peaceful people, living on a bountiful planet, seeking a good future for your population and their future generations. Then, … invasion.. high-tech spaceships with astro-troops bristling with amazing weaponry- they have large craft which begin to suck out your natural resources- oil, gold, gas… This is LNR’s prediction for 2040, the Earth will invade neighboring planets to suck out their natural resources to feed earth. We normally consider other “aliens” invading us, but shall we discount the possibility that ‘WE’ will be the invaders ?

Obama Behind LNR

This is what Obama said on November 23rd

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama promoted an economic plan Saturday he said would create 2.5 million jobs by rebuilding roads and bridges and modernizing schools while developing alternative energy sources and more efficient cars

LNR- November 20,
In the process, you also have a mass change over to alternative energy vehicles completed quickly-

LNR-November 17
As LNR has stated in the past, without a massive employment program now, other measures to prop up the economy will be ineffective

November 8
Instead of pouring billions into inefficient factories, auto industry, billions should be spend on labor intensive infrastructure projects across America.

Obama and the White House remains several days and WEEKS behind LNR. Learn what we need to do, today, instead of weeks later by reading LNR.

LNR Global Warming Alert

LNR has developed a new global warming climate model, based on vehicular wind currents which are non-transparent in the troposphere (VWCNTT model). This new climate model predicts temperatures "could" "possibly" rise from 1 centigrade to 2,000 degrees centigrade !! LNR feels that a 2,000 degree temperature rise might be detrimental to human kind. However, there are positive effects, at 2,000 degrees one can cook food in the open air, thus people can save money on the purchases of microwaves or ovens.

LNR plans to apply for government funds to further utilize the VWCNTT-climate model for future predictions. LNR can only hope that the new administration in the White House will take note of the VWCNTT model and try and prevent temperature rises that could reach 2,000 DEGREES !!!

LNR will be setting up the LNR Global Climate Institute LNR-GCI in cooperation with the LNR- Institute for Study of UFO-ology.

(This is a parody, although LNR believes temperatures are rising-ever so slightly, LNR does not believe for one second that human kind is to blame for global warming- LNR contends this is a natural dynamic in climate flux.)

A Multi-Polar World by 2025 ?

LNR covered this subject

The USA will still be the "dominant" leading power, although its power- relevant to the global pie “may” be smaller. Regarding the estimate by U.S. intelligence that there will be a “multi-lateral” world by 2025, it of course, assumes that America’s power does NOT increase in the next 17 years.


America Suffering Entropy in its Power Paradigm?

LNR reported in a previous article that indeed, U.S. global power may have entered a stage of a true downtrend (unlike previous announcements of America's downfall after Vietnam and the Carter years) , but that is only in the context of relative power. Declining relative power means a slow evolution towards a multi-polar world, this is true, however, do not confuse this with any notion that the U.S. will not remain, by far, the leading power of the world, unchallenged in hard power (GNP, military might, etc) and soft power, (influence, diplomacy, dollar being the leading currency). Why ? This is because the nations which are increasing their soft power- relative to the U.S., for many reasons have NO hope of replacing America as the leading power because of their corruption and undemocratic political systems. The Soviet Union could have never hoped to match their economic and military muscle with a communist authoritarian society- as the world was clearly trending towards open democracies with free economies. A "limited" Japanese democracy could not match their economic muscle with a corporate statist government, and lack of military power projection in order to assume, or be sought for any kind of world leadership. (Similar factors would be applicable to China and India). The current financial crisis is not deep and wide enough to cut into the gigantic economic advantage America has over other countries. The current crisis is serious and big, yes, but one must put it in the context of the scale, America's economy alone remains 25% of the worlds entire GDP, that has been consistent since WWII- no change.... it would take the combined GDP's of the next FOUR largest economies to equal the size of the USA: Japan, Germany, China and UK. Even at the growth rate of 10% a year, and an appreciating currency, and.. assuming America's economy did not grow at all- it would still take China at least 14 years to catch to America- assuming America had zero growth for the next 14 years- not likely- thus, we are looking at another 20 years assuming all things being equal, for China, the leading contender, to match American economic might.

Therefore, America remains the ONLY contender for world leadership for the future as it combines an open democracy, economic dominance and an unrivaled military with global reach. These three factors make it, less a force majeure, impossible for America to be replaced in the near or medium term as an uncontested hyper-power, even if its overall soft and hard power is in decline relative to others.

LNR Movie Review

Righteous Kill- Starring Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino. Released. September 2008
LNR Rating: (1-worst- 10 -best) 2

What a terrible movie, how could they have released it after doing a final edit. It's not only a cliche of good cop /bad cop, it's a cheap copy of the "Star chamber" ( Michael Douglas) and the Dirty Harry movie Magnum Force, where it’s law enforcement and the courts that are knocking off criminals who are free but should have been locked up.

The worst acting by DeNiro and Pacino ever and an insult to people to buy a story that such old men would remain on active duty- they looked so old as did Brian Denehey. The choice of roles and acting was a big ZERO.

Changing Tides

DOW: Goodbye 8,000

Yes, LNR already told you that the DOW would find support at the 6,900-7,200 level, so it’s no surprise that the DOW ended below 8,000. What LNR is surprised at is that the major media kept posing the question at each new low- IS THIS THE BOTTOM ? That is cheap journalism with no substance to the readers. LNR firmly states and has stated several weeks ago where the bottom is. LNR offers substance and analysis actually useful to the readers.

Detroit- Kill the Companies, Save the Workers

LNR is surprisingly in agreement with Michael Moore regarding Detroit. Taking conservatorship of the failing auto companies, but hiring a management firm that specializes in turn-arounds to run the company. Use bankruptcy laws to break the unions, cut wages and benefits to reflect demand of that product. Keep priority manufacturing in defense products and alternative energy vehicles. Slash and burn out the fat management at the top and streamline the separate divisions.
In this way, you keep sales up- because people will continue to buy the products- in whatever numbers, because they are not afraid the company will go bankrupt- (this has been the major argument the car companies have used for not wanting to go into bankruptcy- to reorganize), you keep vital manufacturing knowledge workers employed- as well as key defense products in America and save many jobs. In the process, you also have a mass change over to alternative energy vehicles completed quickly- rather than the slow lethargic pace Detroit has followed so far. The best thing is, you can fire the fat cats who cheated America for years and save hundreds of millions of dollars in fat pay, bonuses and other compensation. You can apply health benefits from the governments to release that huge burden from the auto companies.

For Today

Gold Prices to Shoot Up Soon

As the financial crisis and world economic depression progresses, people around the world are buying up gold coins. The demand is so high, government mints cannot keep up with orders from dealers. As the world supply is bought up, new demand on mined gold will translate into an explosion in the spot market for gold within the next six months.

About LNR’s Stock Market Advice

A few weeks ago LNR urged a good buy into Freddie Mac stock- (FRE), it was just above a dollar a share, right now, it’s down by almost half- we recommended to continue buying on pullbacks- as Freddie Mac will be a huge winner for you. Here is stock guru, Jim Cramer’s take on it:

“Right now, mortgages are expensive relative to their historical benchmark, the 30-year Treasury note. By next summer, I believe that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be nationalized to shore up their flimsy capital foundations. Once the loans that Fannie and Freddie repackaged are explicitly guaranteed by the government, they’ll become the world’s best investments, as they’ll offer much higher yields than Treasury notes, with no more risk. That will cause a steep decline in mortgage rates, making it easier to borrow money and buy a home.” Jim Cramer.

Of course with LNR, you knew that about Freddie Mac a few weeks ago, before stock legend Jim Cramer wrote about it yesterday.

Key to Economic Re-Vitalization does NOT lie outside the EU and America

Some economic commentators are mentioning certain countries outside of the EU and America as being “key” to recovering from the global economic crisis. That assertion is ridiculous, it’s just another example of indulgent thinking about the importance of emerging economies which still have a long way to go before they become the “key” to anything. The EU and America together account for half of the world’s GNP, therefore, THEY are the KEY to recovery. Other countries may “contribute” to economic recovery, but they are NOT a or the ‘KEY’ to recovery.

TAX REFORM

The United States Government should use the current financial mess to reform the tax system. Abolish the IRS, drop graduated and indexed income taxes altogether, and switch to a consumption tax.

A consumption tax would be a "fair" tax in that it taxes those who can consume and how much they can consume. The IRS, in its mandate to tax "fairly" by using hundreds of rules and exemptions making collection a multi-billion dollar loss to the economy irrelevant.

If the financial disaster opens the door to new ideas and reform, taxes needs to be one of them.

U.S. Economy

As LNR has stated in the past, without a massive employment program now, other measures to prop up the economy will be ineffective. Yet, we see a lethargical Congress coming up with ZERO employment plans.

Obama is lead by Pelosi who is following the line of auto industry lobbyists and high financiers. Democrats- for the people ? No employment program, no serious plan to keep homeowners in their homes to keep real esate prices from falling further. A complete dissapointment.

YOU DECIDE

House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is pushing for a bailout of the Detroit auto industry. She is quoted as saying that these three (incompetent, wasteful and disloyal-editors note) companies are "crucial" to the American economy.

Ok, you decide, as a percentage of America's labor force, the Big Three automakers account for: 0.0031% of employment- basically- nothing.

In regards to GNP, the combined sales of the Big Three account for less than 2% of America's GNP- do these numbers sound " CRUCIAL " ??? It seems more the lobbyists contributions and political backslapping are more crucial to Congress than common sense.

Check Mate

America’s current adversaries, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, are making great efforts at expanding their international influence. Russia is pushing heavy on its “near-abroad” like Georgia and Ukraine, Venezuela and Cuba are inviting the Russians in America’s backyard with promises of military cooperation, weapons purchases and oil drilling. Iran continues to meddle in Iraq and threaten Israel.

They are working on two elements of leveraging their power- America’s current economic crisis- including the election of a liberal President and their increased revenues from the past two year run up in oil prices.

Is it a “multi-lateral” world now ? Hardly,, they are regimes without futures, without positive ideas for their populations. They are themselves, basket cases of failed ideology and policies, thus, they are hardly a long term strategic threat to American power or influence.

How should America react- ? Check mate them by dropping the embargo against Cuba, trade and investment will bring down the communist regime there within a year, if not six months. Venezuela should be then squeezed by economic sanctions and full support given to opponents of Chavez’s dictatorship. Iran should be checked by establishing American military “super-bases” inside Iraq, that will bristle with air force fighters and bombers, as well as land based missiles that would be able to obliterate Iran should they chose to take action on any of their offensive threats.
With this overwhelming show of force, you begin to extend the peace feelers to all our adversaries- to negotiate from a position of strength.

First Wave of Economic Tsunami Hits America

As a WAVE of bad economic news smashes American markets and begin to ripple around the World, LNR once again calls for massive spending on employment. Stopping repossession of homes and keeping employment up are the TWO KEY elements in mitigating the economic and financial Tsunami which has reached the American shores.

America’s Death Toll in Iraq… well, not as high as deaths that occur in bathtubs each year.

LNR’s author has laid his life on the line for 12 solid years in Bosnia, Kosovo, Croatia, Serbia, and death comes to us all. The media makes an “issue’ of the deaths in Iraq, but, from historical experience of wars and warfare, the number of U.S. soldier deaths is very small (in the historical context)- in fact, not much more than deaths that occur in the military even in “peacetime “ (due to accidents and suicides) !! Also, the media loves to print the cumulative total to make the number seem bigger than it is “each” year. Let’s see what is more dangerous- bathtubs or fighting in Iraq ?

In the past 5 years a total of 4,195 U.S. soldiers died in Iraq, that is: 839 per year statistically Lets compare- where- might America save more lives – Iraq or :

3,000 dead a year in accidental poisoning PER YEAR VS. Iraq= 839
17,000 falling down PER YEAR VS. Iraq= 839
40,000 !!! auto accidents PER YEAR VS Iraq= 839

Just keep the numbers in perspective
All LNR wants to point out is that we are a world power, we have global engagements, the military is voluntary and a form of insurance that we must pay. LNR has not talked the talk, but has in fact, for 12 years in the midst of war zones- walked the walk. Peace and stability and isolating terrorism does not come cheap- when the media constantly puts the Iraq death toll in print “without” putting those numbers in context- it becomes an act of treason ! Psychologically trying to beat the American public down- in aid of the enemy- clearly- treasonous acts by the media.

More Blab About Detroit

There is a frantic lobbying effort to get Washington to bail out an incompetent American auto industry. Today friends of Detroit are throwing out huge and wild numbers like 3 million people out of work if Detroit goes under, $ 150 billion losses in revenue ! Pure garbage, pure lies.. this is the same sort of propaganda the defense industry gave at the beginning of “defense conversion” during the Clinton years. Clinton wanted a “peace dividend” from the “end” of the Cold War, by turning swords into ploughshares. Defense conversion called for a massive drawdown in defense spending which in turn would affect the defense industrial base. Companies made a “catastrophic scenario” at what would happen to the American economy, lost jobs, revenues, etc. if the government cut the defense budget in a significant way- the budget was cut as well as the armed forces and the economic ripples were few and far between. Just as defense companies were able to either merge or transform into producing products for the civilian economy, huge auto parts manufacturers like Delphi, TRW are parts makers which could make parts for other industrial sectors, not just cars. Say NO to Detroit !

We Want Some of That 700 billion

Seems like just anyone can now claim help ! from the $700 billion bailout money. The Democrats, typically, are now extending what was supposed to be bailout for financial institutions to the auto industry. As LNR said before, no matter how unjustified, the banks must remain liquid and operating in order for our economy to operate. We absolutely DO NOT need the auto industry. The cars remain low quality with high price- it's only the truck divisions that made any real money in the past when people could afford the gas prices.

Picking industrial winners- truly is for socialist economies- not America.

GM Doesn't Deserve It

GM, afraid that the automaker won’t get a piece of the $ 700 billion bailout is now trying to leverage its ailing credit division (GMAC) as a justification for receiving bailout money which is meant for financial institutions.
Obama’s Intended Chief of Staff says“ the auto industry is an essential part of economy” in support of giving Federal money to GM.

LNR says, “ prove it “ … prove that the auto industry is an “essential” part of the economy. The banks are essential, the big insurance companies are- but not the auto industry. The car makers employ few people- relatively (including associated employment like auto parts) and hardly contributes anymore to the $14 trillion American economy. They are now acting contrite, by offering to speed up production and development of “alternative” energy cars. It’s too little, too late.

Today’s News Monday 10 November

Look at this piece of brain power at work;

“Berkshire believes market declines this year are ``temporary, and that equity prices will ultimately rise,'' the company said in a filing”
This useless dribble comes from none other than Warren Buffet ? Of course the decline is temporary, it always is, the question is – how long and when does the market head into long term recovery ? Answer- not for at least 24 months- minimum- let LNR tell you what you need to know since Buffet is now offering complete fluff
Former Soviet Union leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, made some statements today about what Obama should do- LNR thinks- Gorbachev is irrelevant and shouldn’t get any media attention at all.

Global Consensus, Global Harmony, ONE WORLD

Forget about it, it’s nauseating to hear the chorus of soft and weak – so-called world “leaders” run to the utopia of “world convergence” talk. So there was a real estate bubble- it shouldn’t have happened, this bubble caused the collapse of banks that run on a razor thin amount of cash because banks use “fractional reserve” banking- LNR already explained all that. That is no way is a signal that we need to change things structurally- globally or domestically. Regulators and the Federal Reserve should have been watching closely and taking actions during the period that U.S. banks were loaning to unqualified customers- that’s all- nothing else- there is NOTHING else we need to do or take a lesson from. Now, incompetent brain dead leaders want to create a “mountain out of a mole hill “ and push for what LNR calls- “world convergence” or as others term- one world government, “new economic order.” Ridiculous, it was just a real estate bubble, not a systemic pan-economic structural disorder (SPESD- LNR).
Just fix the problem as LNR already suggested, keep the banks liquid, keep employment up and we’ll recover in the next 24 months. Keep banking regulation honest- AND – that’s IT !!! nothing else needed, stop the push for economic convergence and NEW laws and NEW regulations, NEW systems, NEW coordination between economies- it’s all bull ! It proves the incompetency of world leaders to think that a housing bubble indicates other systemic problems- it does NOT.

Don’t Bail Out the Auto Industry

We had to bail out banks and insurance because without them, we have NO economy. However, the auto industry- is asking to go bankrupt- the U.S. automakers have been arrogant in their refusal to make fuel efficient/alternate energy cars, regular U.S cars are still cheaply made and have low quality interiors- why don’t they just make cars that people want to buy- they are not, thus, they have invited bankruptcy upon themselves. The U.S. economy will barely register the loss of the auto industry- therefore, NO government aid should be afforded to them. Look at the numbers, they are asking for $50 Billion which would ‘in theory’ protect 450,000 jobs- this is at a cost of $112,000 per job !! What !! Instead, as per the recommendations of LNR- you spend $50 billion at $40,000 per job- to employ people to work on America’s infrastructure or be retrained in career fields are going begging for people- and you would employ 1,250,000 people who would actually be contributing to future growth. Subsidizing 450,000 auto workers at $112,000 per job is actually pushing the auto industry into continued decline and is just a wasteful tax on America. The American auto industry would not disappear, they would re-organize, be bought up by investors, etc. and emerge, hopefully- meaner and leaner. Even now, Chrysler is not Chrysler anymore- they are owned by an investment company.

Obama is Black, But Does He Represent Black America ?

Obama does have a very liberal voting record in Congress, but little to no support for programs that focus on African-Americans. People like Jesse Jackson have almost turned their backs on Obama because Jesse credits Obama's win not to America embracing a Black man, but for being comfortable with Obama because he speaks and acts like a White man. Unlike Jesse Jackson, Obama's career has been dedicated for himself and not fighting for African-American rights. Other recent contenders to lead African-American's out of the political wilderness, like Condoleeza Rice (an acquaintance of LNR's author) and Colin Powell failed, because of two reasons: first, neither were activists for American Blacks and second, the active Black political community viewed both of them as sell outs- taking jobs in Republican administrations as tokens-

It will be a big question to see how Obama, who has not been an activist for Black America, leads the entire nation, while fulfilling the hopes of many Black American's that their issues for once, would be on the front burner, and, at the level of the White House, in earnest.

There has also been a glaring lack of acknowledgement of the progressive stance of a majority of Whites in America who voted for Obama. White oppression of Blacks in American history, and today, is not the result of being "White" it's the result of being a majority. Majorities, in history, and today- around the world, oppress and dominate their minorities to varying degrees. It may be that the biggest contribution Obama may be able to make to this issue- is simply having won.

LNR Warned About Unemployment

LNR in several issues ago warned that the ONLY two factors which will affect recovery are home prices/inventory and unemployment.

Now unemployment is skyrocketing, and, this is just the front end of unemployment. Instead of pouring billions into inefficient factories, auto industry, billions should be spend on labor intensive infrastructure projects across America. Despite rising unemployment, there are " millions " of jobs begging for people in the industries of health care and computers, where massive training programs could retrain the newly unemployed. President elect Obama is pledging to help the auto industry, saying that it is a critical part of American manufacturing. This is a mistake, trying to pick national industry winners has long been recognized as failed national economic policy, but instead, Obama is trying to instill a quick "feel good" solution.

North Korea Update

More fake photos of the North Korean leader are released to try to convince people that he is alive and well.

It is clear that the power struggle over new leadership continues on without a winner. Until North Korea can display a real leader at the helm, other nations should not extend any new deals or negotiations

LNR Stock Picks

LNR's stock pick results make some people rich overnight. Some LNR readers who purchased AIG at $1.61 a share sold for massive profits only days later when the stock hit $2.43 a share before retreating. AIG did retreat, but not for long, it has shot back up to end at $2.11 on Friday. Freddie Mac (FRE) retreated on profit making, however, the stock is still in play because of government indecision on how to reorganize the company. One however, should note the absolute government support given to this need company which acts as a clearing house for mortgages and underpins the ability and willingness of banks to lend to less than perfect customers.

Once reorganization is complete, this stock is going to PLUTO !

Buy massively on pull backs for a winner that will make you rich like AIG.

The World Ignores President Bush

With Obama's victory, unlike any other in the past, George Bush has made himself so irrelevant that the entire world, as well as America, are appealing to Obama for a host of changes. From Cuba to China, from Chavez's statements that he is willing to speak to the "black man" in the White House, there is an expectation that Obama's term will begin immediately and not have to wait until January.

As LNR stated before, Obama must make a new foreign policy conditional on concessions from whomever he deals with, let Biden's prediction that the world will "test" Obama soon comes true.

Auto Makers in Trouble; Good Let Them Fall

The arrogant Big Three may finally see their last days. The big three often gave America gas guzzling low quality high priced vehicles. In years with fat sales, they continually fail to put aside large funds to cover bottom cycles.

We don't need the vehicles of the Big Three, plenty of other car makers out there doing a better job, why should we keep afloat inefficient industrial dinosaurs alive ?

LNR must say, that it's finally payback from consumers, who were treated so rudely by dealerships when vehicles were flying out the door during the wealthy period of the real estate boom. Salespeople would sit in their swivel chairs not willing to hardly budge on prices, knowing that stock was low and therefore they were in the driver's seat- so to speak. They so foolishly ignored the knowledge that they are in, along with the airlines, a classical boom bust industry.

LNR's Picks

LNR's stock picks, AIG and Freddie Mac (FRE) have made some movements. FRE has shaved a few cents off, but the one year estimate remains over $2 a share, while AIG jumped up a whopping 32% in two days.

LNR continues to remain long on both stocks, but if you wish to consolidate profits, sell into good profits and buy back these two on the pull backs.

Bush's Greatest Accomplishment- Forgotten

LNR has lambasted the President and indeed endorses Hillary Clinton as a write-in candidate. However, it's absolutely "shocking" that as we near the end of Bush's second term, no one in the media or the country is thanking Bush for protecting America the last seven (7) years against terrorism. Since 9/11 not a single terrorist attack has taken place on American soil. Something the President said he was going to do, which is the paramount task of a President- protecting the nation.

The main reason people began to live in groups was for mutual protection. Nothing else can happen in a nation- a good economy, good standard of living, nothing- without security- national security is the penultimate of the raison d'etre of government.

Imagine the thousands of miles of border, airspace, millions of visitors, illegal aliens, airports, harbors, water supply, busses, subways, hundreds of thousands of targets, yet, since 9/11 for seven long years since the surprise attack in New York - not one single attack on our soil. That is a giant accomplishment, attesting to the President's determination to keep the nation safe, while our soldiers keep the terrorists bottled up in Iraq and Afghanistan. Keep in mind that there is no doubt that hundreds if not thousands of terrorist plots or even attempts are being made to strike America, yet they have been stopped in their tracks. Often, in the shadowy world of intelligence and restrictions on what can be published, there are thousands of unsung heroes in the the U.S. intelligence community.

For all of the justified criticism of the President, can the nation, the people, the media be at least objective enough to recognize the President's greatest accomplishment.

Obama Abandons Aunt

Obama wants to tell America that he’ll take care of you- a stranger, but he doesn’t even take care of his own Aunt ? He spoke to his Auntie two years ago without extending a hand of welcome or even inquiring how was it possible that She could remain so long in America on a tourist visa ? Seems very strange, but strikes a glaring insight to his handling of personal relationships.

INVESTMENT NEWS

LNR discloses that LNR author has made a significant investment in shares of Freddie Mac (FRE) at $1.12 a share. A fantastic buy, this now famous company was trading at $27 6 months ago and over $50 a year ago. This is a 24-48 month turn around, but at about a buck a share- this baby will grow fast in the coming two year period- climbing back above the $15 mark.

LNR author also made a similar purchase of AIG at $1.61 per share, another great buy- AIG is a giant, and will remain one in the future, sure to climb to $12 within the next 6 months, and over $20 into the 12 month period. FRE and AIG will be fantastic comeback winners !

LNR author also picked up a large block of share in JAS Solar Energy today, it looks like the favored solar energy company for the next 24 months.

LNR Catches On

Starting only a few weeks ago, LNR now has over 120 daily readers. Thank you.

McCain Takes Popular Vote, Loses Electoral Vote

LNR predicts that uncommitted and last minute voters will surge McCain’s popular vote to surpass Obama, but Obama will win a majority of electoral votes.

The FED: How Low Can You Go ??

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to 100 basis points (1%) !!!
Has the Federal Reserve ever heard of a country called “ Japan “ Golden Boy of the 80’s, slump king for the next two decades.

The Feds want to lower rates to 1% this early in the financial crisis ? Interest rates are one of the “few” tools they have to use, and taking rates down to 1% so early in this crisis is utterly incompetent. Japan’s Central Bank tried the same tricks early on in their housing bubble collapse- and learned that when the economy is going downhill- banks won’t lend and people and business DON”T borrow !! Japan’s central bank took rates to ZERO and still there was no uplift in the Japanese economy. The same result will occur in America and the world, even at 1% people and businesses are not going to borrow money to expand in a shrinking economy.

As LNR has repeatedly stated, the government now needs to spend massively- including taking 25-30% from the defense budget to hire millions of workers, many can be put to work on badly needed infrastructure projects. By keeping employment up- people will regain confidence and begin spending again- that is the natural cycle which will lead to a quicker recovery and prevent a long recessionary bottom.

Short Notes:

• LNR again emphasizes the only way to soften the coming economic Tsunami is to keep and create millions of jobs and stabilize home prices.

• Total 2009 defense budget spending is slated at $815 Billion, we need 25-30% to defend America from the economic Tsunami- keeping jobs and home prices up is every bit as important as important as military spending as both issues are a matter of national security.

• Karadzic’s proposed defense for the accusation that he was the master mind behind the Srebrenica genocide was that Srebrenica was NOT a case of genocide. LNR’s author was near Srebrenica when it fell and investigated its aftermath. LNR’s author opines that Srebrenica may have been a massacre- but not genocide

Bend Over for America and you get VISA FREE TRAVEL to the USA

LNR’s Czech Analyst, “Klara Dlouha” comments that America has rewarded the Czech Republic for allowing U.S. early warning radar to be based there by giving Czech citizens- visa free travel after November 17th, 2008. The radar deal was signed this summer by Secretary of State Rice and the Czech Republic. Stated “Dlouha” “even though many people in the Czech republic opposed the radar system being based there, the government did not heed the opposition and signed the agreement with the United States anyway, and in return- “they gave us a little sugar.”- (visa free travel)

Bosnia in Danger of Collapse

(the author of LNR spent 12 years in the Former Yugoslavia working with the United Nations as a political affairs officer).
Holbrooke, the American diplomat who apparently made an “immunity deal” with Karadzic, is now again, along with Former High Representative of Bosnia- Paddy Ashdown, calling for the WRONG policy in Bosnia. They warn that Bosnia is in danger of collapse. LNR says- “good”- it’s about time this artificial forced union of people who do NOT wish to live together dies out. Especially with the totally illegal and precedent setting recognition of Kosovo, the Serb Republic and and the Croatian half of the Croat-Muslim Federation wish to leave Bosnia and join Serbia and Croatia respectively. Territorial lines are now established and functioning, so, since Kosovo was illegally and forcibly split from Serbia, why can’t the Serbs and Croats in Bosnia democratically leave a dysfunctional artificial edifice of the international community ? Ashdown and Holbrooke warn of dysfunction and continued antagonism- thereby themselves proving the mistake of creating a Bosnia in the first place by forcing the three people’s to live together when they clearly did not want to, before AND now. Bosnia was a gift to Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices down during the Clinton years, and for Clinton to display to the Arab countries America’s even handedness when it came to Muslim peoples. Plans to partition Bosnia after the Dayton Peace Accords was supported by those of us on the ground, the UN, diplomats, all the people except Izetbegovic’s radically influenced Muslim government who thought that without a Bosnia, they would be isolated and left with too little.

Russia Offers Increased Military Aid to Cuba

With American encroachments on the periphery of Russia (Georgia, former Bloc countries now in NATO, U.S. anti-missile system to be deployed in Czech republic/Poland) Putin is increasing Russia’s presence in Cuba and Venezuela as a counter punch to America. Although the new military aid to Cuba is pretty insignificant, the answer from America should be to cut Russia off at the knees and turn Cuba into a friend and ally of America. With the medical retirement of Fidel Castro, it’s prime time for the US to drop the Cuban embargo, extend relations and begin trade and investment in Cuba. This, in a short time will totally negate any Russian influence in Cuba, and lead to regime change in Cuba making it soon a friend and ally- which is what most Cuban desire.

Financial Tsunami Coming AND It Can’t Be Stopped

It’s ridiculous for media and government alike to now talk about, “solving” the credit crisis. It’s here- and worse is coming- why ? Because markets are now reacting to the economic Tsunami which has started- massive cuts in consumer and business spending- perhaps three (3) trillion dollars may not be spent, which ordinarily would have. This is an “unstoppable” financial Tsunami where the ONLY thing we can do now is better prepare ourselves for it. How? First, take all measures, both in private industry and government- to keep people in jobs and create more jobs- including government hiring millions of people for much needed infrastructure repair. Next, take tax credits for companies to keep people on the payroll. Secondly, the government should now sponsor massive bond funding to enable home owners to remain in their homes (one hardly mentioned idea is to extend loans (for a period of five years) from the average of 30 year amortization to 50, 60 year mortgages to lower payments but keep loans performing), and 5 year mortgages amortized over 50-60 years to help people buy their first new homes- a combined approach to stabilize home prices. The third step is to keep the banks liquid and cash flowing, which the government has begun.

Where do we get the money? Massive cuts in the Iraq war effort must pay for part of it and massive borrowing from the government, not higher taxes.

Global Power Rankings

America 26
M=4, PP=6, EM=4.8 EI=3 W/P=5 DI=4

EU 17.5
M=3 PP=2.5 EM=4 EI=2 W/P=4 DI=2

China 11
M=1.5 PP=1.5 EM=2 EI=2 W/P=3 DI=1

Japan 8.45
M=1 PP=2 EM=2.5 EI=1.7 W/P=1 DI=0.25

Russia 6
M=2 PP=2 EM=0.25 EI=0.25 W/P=0.5 DI=1


M= Military (size and capability/modernity/technology) PP= Power Projection, global military reach EM= Economic might EI= Economic Influence on the world economy W/P= wealth, education of population, population trend, DI= Diplomatic influence on the world

LNR has chosen the relevant categories and have scored the countries by its own estimates.

Iraq: We Can Take It, But We Can’t Hold It

In a follow up to a previous LNR commentary which called for a draft in order to deploy 400,000-500,000 soldiers to Iraq, LNR wanted to be clear why. It is NOT because current U.S. Forces in Iraq cannot defeat any and all enemies inside Iraq, it’s is that we do not have enough soldiers to hold “liberated” or “pacified” areas, and thus as U.S. troops leave an area, insurgents move back in. This is why we need enough boots on the ground to hold territory after the victory.

LNR YOU HEARD IT FIRST HERE

Luko News Review told you Friday, October 10th , more than two (2) weeks ago that we need to “halt” trading on the stock market floor. As usual, the general media is way behind LNR, only reporting yesterday the following story:


From The Sunday Times
October 26, 2008
“ Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come
When this man predicted a global financial crisis more than a year ago, people laughed. Not any more...
What does Roubini think is going to happen next? Rather worryingly, in London last Thursday he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and stock markets may soon have to shut – perhaps for as long as a week – in order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world.”

ah, yeah, thanks Mr. Roubini, but LNR readers knew this more than two weeks ago !

U.S. Dollar Gains in Strength to Record Levels

LNR wears a smug smile at those in the last eight months who lamented and lambasted the falling value of the U.S. dollar. What other currency did people really think world trade would use ? The Yen ? From a Japan that has been economically flat lined for the past 15 years ? The Euro is not a contender because although the EU's economy is larger than the United States, and for all the unity there is- it's not a single economy ( in addition to the fact that the EU is just a temporary respite to a declining Europe). The largest single economy, by far, remains the United States, therefore, it would be completely illogical to think that anything but the dollar will remain the trading and main reserve currency of world economy. And, here it is, even though the United States was ground zero for the financial meltdown, to which currency did nations flock in time of emergency ?? The U.S. greenback ofcourse. The U.S. dollar has completely recovered, and even gained some against major currencies including the Euro.

It's just constantly amazes LNR how normal economic cycles are treated as long term trends, instead of what they are- just short term fluctuations.

ASEM Summit Recklessly Calling for Increased Global Economic Regulation

In the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), being held in Beijing the last few days, world leaders are recklessly calling for "increased regulation of financial markets." This, LNR warns you, will certainly prolong a global economic slump. Increased regulation slows growth- by cutting lending. Without aggressive and somewhat risky lending, you do not get dynamic economic growth. Aggressive and risky lending did NOT cause the current economic meltdown, financial institutions were not adhering to regulations already in place- this is what caused it- but certainly not for the lack of even MORE regulation.


Dow Jones Keeps Edging Lower

As LNR reported many days ago, unlike the optimistic mainstream media that jumps for joy each time the market gains a bit, its clear the market is experiencing ever lower plateau's at the end of each trading session. LNR already informed you that the next, significant resistance level would be 6,900 to 7,200. There we will see sustained market support from large fund managers who need to keep vested in several of the major large caps.

OPEC Stabs the World in the Back

Amid a global financial meltdown, signs of a coming world-wide recession, our so-called "allies" who are members of OPEC stab the world in the back. Falling oil prices is major factor in determining the depth and breadth of a world recession (transport, heating and industry rely on oil). On signs that oil prices continued to fall, from a few months ago- an outrageous $150 per barrel, to now just over $60 per barrel, OPEC is announcing one emergency meeting after another, to call for cuts in production. OPEC aims to keep prices high- even though $64 per barrel itself is a historically high price. Adjusting for inflation, the market equilibrium price is around $24 per barrel.

Now more than ever, OPEC needs to allow prices to drop to what the free market dictates, yet, the oil cartel is looking to make extraordinary profits despite the global economic tailspin. A worldwide economic recession could bring wars, millions of excess starving, untold socio-economic damage. Therefore, this now becomes a matter of global security, and if the world leaders have not already made some "firm" calls to OPEC, NATO, with cooperation of China and Japan, should put the oil fields under protective custody using military means, allowing OPEC to sell oil at no more than $30 per barrel.

During the time of "protective custody", and thus with gas prices significantly lower, there should be a 150% tax on each gallon/liter of gasoline purchased by consumers to be put into an alternative energy fund, to pay for massive and rapid construction of nuclear power plants, clean-coal, hydro-power, wind and solar farms to reduce, once and for all, the dependency on unreliable Middle-Eastern regimes.

In 1996 oil was at $20 per barrel, by 2000 it was $27 per barrel = 35% inflation, from 2000 to 2004 it went to $37 per barrel= 37% inflation, and from 2004 to 2008 it went to $105 per barrel = 183% !!! You accept that kind of inflation ? Does that reflect market demand ? Of course not, its the result of the oil monopoly of OPEC.

The threat of global calamity is no time to deal with corrupt, rotting oligarchies, tin-pot governments who are incompetent in approaching the role of oil in the current economic emergency. The Arab nations are covering their greed under the guise of Iran and Venezuela who are calling for production cuts. At this time, NATO countries already have an overwhelming military presence in the Gulf- its time to turn the crosshairs from Iraq to OPEC !

LNR is Original

LNR articles are original commentary and analysis. LNR does NOT copy or re-report articles.

Path to Citizenship for Undocumented Workers

LNR can’t understand the approach of the Administration and Congress towards undocumented workers. They keep arguing about “how” to get undocumented workers on the “path” of citizenship. Why ? They don’t need “citizenship” to “work and live” in America, all they need is a green card. In fact, giving them a “path” to a green card is NOT what America needs. The utility and demand for undocumented workers is for a pool of largely uneducated people who will work for below minimum wage. There is NO demand for MORE citizens- or green card holders- unless they are educated, speak English and have a marketable skill- WHY WHY would we give green cards or citizenship to millions of uneducated non-English speaking people. Well, the “path” to citizenship would entail- educating them for a skill and English- but that is terrible- the American economy demands “low wage” workers- not more citizens per se. The mainstream immigration debate is completely sidestepping the real issue- American business demands for low wage labor. LNR’s solution is a temporary work card- which makes them documented, pay some basic deductions to cover basic medical costs, some tax contributions for services they use, but, allowing them to be paid below legal minimum wage for certain job categories. This, and ONLY this is, what American business wants from these undocumented workers. If we educate them and upgrade their skills and language- we will be losing the VERY resource industry is demanding- !! low wage workers. The reason you accept a low wage is twofold- most of your low wage earnings are being sent to countries where those earnings equate to HIGH wages- those dollars in Mexico buy a lot more than they do in America- so in that aspect- those lower wages are NOT an exploitation of these workers. In fact, paying below legal-minimum wage is clearly a WIN WIN situation- where industries that require basic manual labor can afford to offer services, i.e. landscaping, at affordable rates- WIN, while those workers – even though being paid below minimum wage- support many family members back in their home country-WIN. If we put those undocumented workers on the path to citizenship where we must pay them legal wages- companies will go broke because if they have to pay higher wages and pass the costs to the consumer- many more American’s will not use those services- i.e. the average American household can pay $150-200 per month in landscaping maintenance- they will not use those services if it will cost $500 per month. You can eat at Denny’s or other restaurants when your average bill for a family is $18-27 , but not if that same meal is going to cost $40-70 per meal.

Don’t put illegal’s on the path to citizenship, put them on temporary work cards and allow them to be paid below minimum wage- they will NOT be stealing any jobs away from Americans. This has been proven by the last 20 years of the lowest unemployment rates in American history- despite 10-20 million illegal workers present in America.

Arrest Greenspan

Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chairman, along with Congressional banking regulators and certain executives from banks should be arrested for treason. These people subverted the U.S. financial system to the point that it has caused a clear and present danger to the national security of the United States.
Greenspan wants to feign ignorance – after years of ads from the likes of Country Wide Mortgage company (the biggest retail lender of mortgages in the US) “Mortgage- no qualifying, a social security number gets you a mortgage” there were low-doc and even NO-doc loans, that were essentially banks giving money away if you were using it for real estate- counting on the fact that real estate prices would trend up allowing unqualified borrowers to pay back those notes via capital gains. How could anyone believe that Greenspan, Congressional regulators and bank executives could not guess that eventually, real estate prices would crest and begin to fall- as all previous real estate cycles do – boom busts come and go.

UN Report: Economic Inequality in America Same as Africa

Yesterday the United Nations Habitat agency publicized its report that, mathematically speaking, the divide between the “poor” and “rich” of some major American cities was equal to that of some cities in Africa. That is to say, the mathematical ratio – the ratio itself- (using the gini-coefficient means of measurement) was equal to some African cities. But so what ! Poverty in America has been consistent- even using the negatively misleading definition of the US Census Bureau- poverty in America has been consistent at 12% for decades now. In addition, the gini-coefficient used by UN Habitat, does not measure wealth, stored assets, savings accounts, access to credit- it makes the statement comparing inequality in US cities comparable to Africa a completely misleading and outlandish statement. The gini-coefficient merely measures the ratio of lowest average incomes with highest average incomes- in given cities- which hardly gives the real picture.

It’s an OUTRAGE for the UN to give such misleading publicity- when they are glaringly ignoring the fact that the “poor” of America still maintain standards that would be the “envy” of the middle class of much of the world. It’s simply outrageous and petty for the United Nations to ignore the huge difference between a poor person in oil rich Lagos- without running water, no food or access to a job or medical care, no credit card, living in a shack to a “poor” person in New Orleans who has shelter, food, education, air conditioning, credit cards, free medical care- the UN is being outrageous! What does it mean to be poor in America- what is the definition? The UN uses the statistics of what the US Census Bureau classifies as “poor” which is: family of four making less than $21,000 in net income (there is a scale of family members to income to determine poverty- family of four is just a median example for 2007), however, that excludes that the family is eligible for thousands of dollars of free government aid, like food stamps, housing benefits, Medicaid, capital gains, other cash benefits- meaning- we could be talking about a family of four with total benefits of $45,000-$60,000 !! that’s poor ? Relatively- maybe- in America, but certainly that is NOT poor compared to the “poor” person in Africa- who has little to no access to similar services. So, what is the point, the UN is using apples and oranges to compare “rates” of inequality between America and Africa. If you’ve ever been to Africa, or other poor areas of the world, you will see the gigantic difference of poor over there and poor over here. (We are not talking about people in America who live on the streets because of other social problems- and chose not to take advantage of free housing, medical, job assistance etc.). As a former diplomat for the United Nations for 12 years, LNR would ask the UN to compare the wealth of those of us who weren’t corrupt and those at the top who were and still are ( the majority of the leadership of UN agencies are)- let’s look at those “rates” !

Why Banks are so Fragile?

It should be no surprise to people why so many banks are failing. When banks have large loan defaults- the reason banks need cash from the government is because they practice- “fractional reserve banking.” This system of banking is well over 200 years old and is universally used around the world at almost all banks.

Fractional reserve banking is where only a portion of deposits remain with the bank, the majority of deposits are loaned out- this is how banks make money. Therefore, if a large part of their operating capital is wiped out- (actually representing a small portion of their overall assets and deposits) the banks cannot function- they are out of cash !! The majority of their cash has been loaned out right ? So why is the media making it sound so incredible and earth shattering that even a small economic crisis can wipe out banks ? Tthe general media is doing a poor job not to explain to the public why these titanic banks are being knocked over so quickly and easily- from the day of announcing a large swathe of bad loans- the bank is bankrupt within a few days. Of course, using fractional reserve banking DEPENDS on the bank having not even a small crisis- either of confidence, operating cash, whatever- a small problem can, overnight, wipe out the small amount of cash that the bank works with.

So, stop the incredulity already.

LNR One Week Ahead of the Competition-again.

LNR wrote our story , more than 10 days ago !!
Saturday, October 11, 2008

Poof ! With the Collapse in Oil Prices- So Goes Russia's Power
Oil prices are collapsing as the markets anticipate lower consumption of oil because of the financial crisis and coming world recession. Hence, a projected long-term downward pressure on oil prices for the next 24 months at least. This, coupled with the recent financial meltdown, is going to put the Russian Bear back in his cave for another hibernation.

LNR’s story already told you back on October 11th that collapsing oil prices was going to stop Russia in its tracks regarding its aggressive behavior and attempt to regain superpower status.
So, as usual, the mainstream media is more than a week behind us- as only today, the New York Times reports:

Oil-Rich Countries Face a Reckoning
By SIMON ROMERO, MICHAEL SLACKMAN and CLIFFORD J. LEVY
Published: October 20, 2008
CARACAS, Venezuela — As the price of oil roared to ever higher levels in recent years, the leaders of Venezuela, Iran and Russia muscled their way onto the world stage, using checkbook diplomacy and, on occasion, intimidation. Now, plummeting oil prices are raising questions about whether the countries can sustain their spending — and their bids to challenge United States hegemony
Simon Romero reported from Caracas; Michael Slackman from Amman, Jordan; and Clifford J. Levy from Moscow. María Eugenia Díaz contributed reporting from Caracas, and Nazila Fathi from Tehran

So does it take a guy from Caracas, a guy in Amman Jordan, and three other people to tell you what LNR told you 10 days ago !! New York Times struggling to keep up with LNR !

Obama Will Turn America into a Wimp

It’s no big revelation that often, the pendulum swings from one side to the other, rather than a moderate middle. It is obvious, even to his own party, that Bush swung the neo-con preemptive (Bush Doctrine) policy too far, too fast. Foreign policy, handled correctly, is like a long oil tanker, it takes time to turn it around. Foreign policy turned on a dime leaves a lot of collateral damage. Bush turned our foreign policy, after Clinton, on a dime.

Now, however, at this time, it seems Obama will win the election in November, less any surprises to the negative of Obama or the plus of McCain. Obama believes he is reading the American will that America be accepted again as a positive actor in the world community. LNR fears Obama will practice foreign policy based on American domestic politics. That is wrong, Obama will end up pushing the pendulum the other way- too far- turning America into an international wimp- as we were in the Jimmy Carter years.

As in business, in politics- you CAN’T admit you were wrong, you CAN’T back down, even if your position is untenable or just plain wrong. You must carefully maneuver your way out to new positions, and even with that, you cannot stand down to challengers. American policy vis-à-vis North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Venezuela must be hard line without concessions. The real world is “realpolitik” and if you create power vacuums by being ‘nice’ and ‘understanding’ you will be crushed by upstarts ready to fill the vacuum- that’s life, that’s history. For example, with Iraq, once bad intelligence about WMD’s was identified, the U.S. had a window of opportunity to leave with the Iraqi baathist party in control, we did not. In the case that we remained after that window of opportunity closed, we should have then injected the resources required to crush the insurgency and appoint- not elect, a coalition government of national unity. The resources needed to win at that point would have required a draft- a good President, no matter the political damage, would have called for a draft so that we could put 400-500,000 soldiers on the ground. Our military was NOT winning- and your strategy was clear- bring in reinforcements- yet, a weak President just let the situation rot- a crime against our fallen troops, a crime against Iraq.
Obama, if he indeed wins, will “blink” in the real life game of realpolitik. It will end up, just as Joe Biden said correctly yesterday, Obama, if we wins, will be an INVITATION for a global crisis – a challenge to America.

Is America Suffering Entropy in its Power Paradigm?

LNR reported in a previous article that indeed, U.S. global power may have entered a stage of a true downtrend (unlike previous announcements of America's downfall after Vietnam and the Carter years) , but that is only in the context of relative power. Declining relative power means a slow evolution towards a multi-polar world, this is true, however, do not confuse this with any notion that the U.S. will not remain, by far, the leading power of the world, unchallenged in hard power (GNP, military might, etc) and soft power, (influence, diplomacy, dollar being the leading currency). Why ? This is because the nations which are increasing their soft power- relative to the U.S., for many reasons have NO hope of replacing America as the leading power because of their corruption and undemocratic political systems. The Soviet Union could have never hoped to match their economic and military muscle with a communist authoritarian society- as the world was clearly trending towards open democracies with free economies. A "limited" Japanese democracy could not match their economic muscle with a corporate statist government, and lack of military power projection in order to assume, or be sought for any kind of world leadership. (Similar factors would be applicable to China and India). The current financial crisis is not deep and wide enough to cut into the gigantic economic advantage America has over other countries. The current crisis is serious and big, yes, but one must put it in the context of the scale, America's economy alone remains 25% of the worlds entire GDP, that has been consistent since WWII- no change.... it would take the combined GDP's of the next FOUR largest economies to equal the size of the USA: Japan, Germany, China and UK. Even at the growth rate of 10% a year, and an appreciating currency, and.. assuming America's economy did not grow at all- it would still take China at least 14 years to catch to America- assuming America had zero growth for the next 14 years- not likely- thus, we are looking at another 20 years assuming all things being equal, for China, the leading contender, to match American economic might.

Therefore, America remains the ONLY contender for world leadership for the future as it combines an open democracy, economic dominance and an unrivaled military with global reach. These three factors make it, less a force majeure, impossible for America to be replaced in the near or medium term as an uncontested hyper-power, even if its overall soft and hard power is in decline relative to others.

Flowers for the Dead ?

Is North Korea's Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il dead ? As of 11:30pm 20th of October, 2008- we are not sure.

It's likely he is dead or near death and there is confusion in the two ruling groups as to what actions to take. The leading faction, and most likely eventual winner- is Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, Jang Song-taek, aged 62 who is supported by General O Kuk-ryol along with some other leading generals. Kim Jong-il's Sons are supported by the current government and other parts of the military. Jang Song-taek, officially or unofficially will be ruling North Korea, along with close support of General O Kuk-ryol very soon- which means tomorrow or in the next two weeks by the latest. If Kim Jong-il is still holding on, he is past the point of no return, the running of the bulls has begun.

Government Should Prevent a GM-Chrysler Merger

Don't let the current governments intervention in the banking and mortgage crisis let other companies join in anti-free enterprise activities. A GM-Chrysler merger would leave us with only two major auto makers, don't trust such a "trust" ! Let all three auto makers fall, LNR supported massive government intervention in the financial meltdown because it was a question of national security and macro-economic stability. The big three of Detroit are no longer a relevant factor in America's economy and are themselves to blame for their failures. In the fat bountiful years, the billions they earned during the real estate boom- they failed to squirrel money away for a rainy day. Just as the airlines industry, the auto industry typically goes through booms and busts, and rarely save and stash away money during the booms- to survive the busts. This bust is different because the troubled banks won't lend the billions to tide the auto makers over until the next boom. The big three also failed to make cars that people wanted, obviously people prefer the imports from Japan and Korea.

The last time the government assisted the auto industry, in a big way, was offering loan guarantees for Chrysler in 1980 (contrary to popular belief- the government did NOT give Chrysler one billion dollars (1 billion) but only extended loan guarantees (amounting to $1.5 billion) so that Chrysler could borrow the money. Chrysler recovered and paid back the loan early. However, that was a different time, American cars were still dominant, over 76% of sales in 1980 were American built cars, the auto industry work force represented a larger portion of the unions and workforce than today. It was a decision in a different time. Today, we don't need them. Their products are over priced and under quality. The American auto industry is also guilty of sheer disdain of its consumers by not developing alternate energy vehicles long ago, leaving Americans with NO choice except to buy gas guzzling cars and subjecting Americans to the vulnerability of Arab oil. Let them fall. Vehicle demand will either be picked up by a new company that buys them out or we rely on imports- which offer better for less. The loss in direct and indirect jobs (auto suppliers) will be a much smaller price to pay, than the billions the consumer will loose to a trust of GM-Chrysler overpricing and robbing the consumer over the next few years.

Let'em fall !

Yabba Dabba Dooo FINANCE

Yabba dabba doo finance- we're sorry- we mean to say "Yahoo Finance".

(Today on Yahoo Finance)
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger, Ap Economics Writer – 1 hr 24 mins ago

WASHINGTON – The nation is on track to build fewer homes this year than at any time since the end of World War II, adding to the woes of an economy that analysts said Friday has almost certainly entered a recession.


What ? its time AP gets a new economics writer. Martin Crutsinger has got it all wrong ! Crutsinger is saying that because the "nation is on track to build fewer homes this year" he says it's "adding to the woes" of the economy ? What have we been saying in the past week, as well as the Wall Street Journal and John McCain- (although remember we said it first) home prices need to stabilize- forclosures to stop- its the only way to sop up excess housing inventory- that is the ONLY way to stop the freefall in America's greatest asset cache for America's main economic engine- the consumer. (including Joe-the-Plumber). LNR called for a restriction in home building permits and halting forclosure evictions (not forclosures per se) and hope that home builders will be wise enough- or bankrupt enough- to stop building for a while until the market demands it- and home prices at least stabilize- if not recover slightly. The drop in value in homes has taken out trillions in equity that homeowners were counting on for retirement, borrowing against, and peace of mind. That confidence makes people spend in the economy, take that away- and you stop the engine that drives 2/3'rds of the economy. As we also said before, with asset destruction (home equities) you deprive collateral assets against which banks can loan.

About Martin Crutsinger: Actually, there are quite a few internet posts about Crutsinger getting it "all wrong" that you can research yourself. For straight economic reporting, cannot AP get someone a little more competent ? On Feb. 2 2007, a blog called "State 29" calls "Martin Crutsinger from the AP failed math class" alleging that Crutsinger used inaccurate numbers to impress the White House. In 2006, "Bizzyblog" said of Crutsinger:

January 3, 2006 Media Blog
Martin Crutsinger of AP Botches Reporting on the November Construction Spending Report

We can't say enough about CNN and AP messing up on financial news and analysis.

STOCK MARKET up or down ?

Today, CNN Money gleefully reported the"although stocks were down yesterday- they were up for the week !" who’s kidding who, at 8,800 the Dow Jones is down over 5,000 points from just a year ago- and the 11,000-12,000 was the resistance level of the Dow Jones for over a year. CNN Money should be reporting that the stock market is near collapse ! You can't solve major macro-economic problems when you can't even analyze what's happening today ! CNN and AP get poor poor marks for their economic reporting.

Waste Your Time- Read Glenn Beck

Wow, Glenn Beck says today, "look out for more economic trouble ahead" now thats worth a multi-million dollar salary from CNN right ? Please, go ahead read Glenn Beck, a friend but a pretty superficial analyst. Reading his financial headline today was a pure waste of time, just some general wise sounding fluff about ' get ready' ' save your money' "things are getting worse" I think you could be as stupid as a doorbell and know that already- come on Glenn-
tell us what we dont know ---
want to know what you don't know ? Read LNR- we told you where the stock market was going to be the next day- in contrast to the media that got Tuesdays market completely wrong- we told you what the government needs to do to stabilize the financial markets- 10 days before the Wall Street Journal, 5 days before John McCain. LNR gives you specific news in advance, specific market predictions and where your money should be now. We told you that gold will keep rising until about $2,000 per ounce- (days before the gold pundits were willing to stick their necks out) so you know when to get in, and when to get out. So, if you need to know specifically what is going to happen, read LNR, if you want general fluff that is totally meaningless- read the major media.

We Told You- we are headed to 7,000

LNR pleaded to readers to understand that the big bounce in the stock market on Monday was due to the government brow beating big fund managers to buy into the market. Now, Tuesday and Wednesday - all you got in return was predicted, profit takers pocketing billions of dollars while pushing the market down to right where we started. Now, its clear we will be bouncing bottom around 7,000 maybe 6,900 on the Dow Jones. Keeping funds in long term utilities, basic technology is the way to go if you're going to remain in the market. Otherwise- it's where the fund managers are going- gold and T-bills.

Hollywood VS. The United States of America

The cacophony coming out of Hollywood is has become stifling! A wall of incompetent leftist trash talk is hurled against the President of the United States of America and the Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin. LNR has already disavowed the current candidates and called for a write-in of Hillary Clinton (see our story below – Oct.13- “Hillary for President”) so we are not opposed to intelligent criticism of the current candidates. However, Hollywood media with its direct exposure to MOST Americans, is pushing incompetent views that does not look like a mere expression of views - but rather implementing an agenda.
Oliver Stone’s movie about the President is out “W” … where Josh Brolin (his Wife called the police for domestic battery- but did not press charges against Josh) (Son of James Brolin who believes the government orchestrated 9/11 and said on a radio show about 9/11 “celebrate the day”) said that the movie will be a great education for the American public. What ? We all live Bush’s politics each day and don’t need Hollywood to educate us- a Hollywood that is polluted with the worst kinds of social behavior, drug and alcohol abuse along with their superficial uneducated trash talk. Hollywood is NOT reflective of American society- the jail times, substance abuses exist at much higher rates with the Hollywood bubble heads than the rest of American society. LNR refuses to be lead by the nose by these drugged out sycophants who often believe they really are the people they portray in their movies.
Oprah, the queen of all bubble heads refuses equal airtime to Palin, Matt Damon portrays his absolute stupidity with his comments about Palin, Chevy Chase – traitor to America who lied to avoid fighting for his country in Vietnam, wants Palin to be “decimated.” Throw in Michal Moore’s one-sided incredibly circumstantially based documentaries and you have a Hollywood agenda working against the United States of America to stifle balanced views in the media.

Toot Our Own Horn !!

Well what can we at LNR say ? 10 days ago we wrote our first major story titled:
“Feds Missing Crucial Element to Solve Credit Crisis” where we explained that without stabilizing falling home prices- the credit crisis cannot be addressed in the long term- and that the housing crisis was clearly the root of our current financial problems. We’ve been scanning the media for the past week for any support on our analysis- nothing found- finally- 10 days later, the Wall Street Journal reports:

· OCTOBER 15, 2008 Wall Street Journal
No Quick Fix for Housing PricesEconomists Press for New Programs for Homeowners toStemDownward SpiralBy RUTH SIMON and MICHAEL CORKERY…..

But some economists say the government needs to do more to address the underlying problems that triggered the credit crisis. "It's very disappointing" that the plan doesn't do anything "to stop the spiral in home prices," which is reducing net worth and creating a falloff in consumer spending, says Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein.
One problem with the refinancing program is that it will help only 400,000 troubled homeowners, according to some estimates, well short of the nearly 12 million Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth and are in danger of default “

Well, we cannot agree more since we published this analysis 10 days before the Wall Street Journal. Crashing home prices can only be addressed by halting evictions-thereby keeping homes from being dumped on the auction/short sale market, and cutting home building permits for companies until the huge overhang of home supply gets soaked up. -LNR

Stock Market News- Read It Here First !

Yesterday afternoon, after basking in a 900+ stock market rise, the financial media were predicting another big push on Tuesday, saying late on Monday, pre-trading seems to indicate that stocks will go up again. Of course, being smart, you read the Luko News Review which told you that short term traders were going to take profits on Tuesday. Well, we were right- again. Check it out below-

AP: Stocks pull back as profit-taking sets inTuesday October 14, 6:34 pm ET By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

The stock market went down on Tuesday, as we told you it would on Monday. How could major financial analysts in the media possibly believe that in an uncertain market, investors could hold back from taking profits after a 936 upward kick in the market ??

Pump It Up !

The U.S. and other governments promised the banks the universe- “unlimited” funding ! this “pumped up” the stock market to soar over 900 points- and who is smiling ? The day traders- the market makers, because they are going to cash in and transfer those billions of stock market short trade profits right into their pockets. Now, why did the stock market go that high ? In our opinion it over-shot the anticipated bump of 300-500 points. This author’s inside sources report that governments- over the weekend, brow beat many influencial fund managers to “buy” into the market on Monday to help the rally gain momentum. It did, for now. But the short term traders and day traders are going to cash in big by selling tomorrow or the next day and pocket huge windfalls, continuing the wild gyrations of the stock market.
As more bad economic news, unemployment numbers, sales shortfalls, and more banks announce that they are tapping into the government bail out money, we will continue to have downward pressure on the stock market. As LNR stated before, the Government needs to address the property market crash before seeing any long term stability in banking.

Look at this story:

It was posted on 13th October and is almost a copy of the story we wrote 4 days ago on 09 October (see LNR Story below: “America’s Global Strategic Losses”) We can’t stop saying it, why read this story on Yahoo- on October 13th when we already gave the you the same story- and more – four days ago ! Read LNR to get the news of tomorrow- today.

Banking crisis challenges US superpower status by Luis Torres de la Llosa Mon Oct 13, 10:56 PM ET NEW YORK (AFP) –picked up by Yahoo News.

This is hotly denied by many who point out the country's role as the world's most dynamic economy and preeminent military force. But US foes say a dramatic shift has already happened and even some allies suggest the time is coming.
Doomsayers point to the costly and unending conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the worst financial upheaval since the depression of the 1930s, and a crisis of confidence in politics and the domestic economy with few parallels.
Countries like Iran and Venezuela gleefully pronounce the end of "the empire," while Russia trumpets the coming "multi-polar world" in which emerging giants like China, India and Russia itself will hold sway.
Even Peer Steinbruck, the German economy minister, broke ranks last month, saying: "The US will lose its financial superpower status in the global financial system."
A similar warning was sounded recently by British political philospher John Gray, who wrote in The Observer that the world is witnessing "a historic geopolitical shift in which the balance of power in the world is being altered irrevocably."

America Removes North Korea from the List of Terrorist Nations

We have NO transparency from the current administration as to how and why North Korea was taken off the list of terrorist sponsoring nations. Officially, the U.S. government confirmed back in 2007 that they would remove North Korea from the list- they didn’t- so why now ? The real story is the lousy reporting from the mainstream media which is not revealing to the public WHY being on the list of state sponsored terrorism was relevant or important. Here is the story to understand. Being put on the list of states that sponsor terrorism leads to some sanctions, mainly implemented by the USA. In the case of North Korea, most of those stated sanctions had little effect on North Korea, i.e. blocking companies doing business with North Korea, cutting tax credits, MFN, etc. which is basically meaningless for a country like North Korea with little to no economic ties to America. Where being on that list really hurt North Korea was the fact that it affected the import of luxury goods to the greedy North Korean leadership. The DPRK leadership imports thousands of pounds of gourmet foods, champagne, big screen TV’s, Mercedes cars, movies, Whiskey, etc. you get the picture- while their countrymen are starving- they are living the high life. These sanctions also included freezing their secret bank accounts around the world and having allied nations cancel visa’s of their children attending schools there. This is what really struck the North Korean leadership hard- and when the U.S. did not immediately lift these sanctions when promised several month ago, North Korea began to rebuild its water cooling tower and cut off Nuclear inspections. So it was the U.S. that reneged on the deal and forced North Korea’s hand to reverse course on halting their nuclear program- so the U.S. caved in and agreed on Oct. 11 to remove North Korea from the state sponsor list- now- France can now once again export the champagne and Foie gras and Germany its Mercedes luxury models (intelligence reports that the North Korean leadership plays with a 7,000 luxury Mercedes vehicle fleet), and the daily fresh lobster imported for the great one himself, Kim Jong-il. THAT- as Sharon Stone likes to say- is what the state sponsor terrorist list was all about for North Korea.

Luko News Review- Right on the Money, (I mean Gold)

It just keeps happening, Luko News Review gives you the news before it happens. In our October 7 blog we predicted gold could top out as high as $2,000 per ounce. That was October 07, today, on October 13th -
Author David Ian Miller, Oct. 13 2008, writes in Slate Magazine:
We're All Gold Diggers By David Ian Miller Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 - 2:57pm
Coyner says that if gold's price went up to, say, $2,000 an ounce, getting it out of the ground in places that are now deemed too tough to mine would become economically viable. (Alan Coyner, the also slyly named administrator of Nevada's division of minerals)
Why read about gold prices at $2,000 an ounce on October 13th i in Slate Magazine when you could have read it here in the Luko News Review a week ago ? Keep reading LNR to be 3 steps ahead of the news.

Hillary For President

This author, generally being a conservative, didn’t think he’d be endorsing Hillary Clinton, but for our current choice of candidates, and the multiple problems we are facing, Hillary as a write-in candidate, is by far our best choice.

Out of 300 million people in the USA, it’s hard to believe that all we can come up with is the current lot of candidates. Obama- totally inexperienced, outsider, without a political base from which to draw from. Clinton’s first four years in office were widely a failure because of an inexperienced staff and a lack of a political base in Congress. Obama is similar to Bill Clinton in having normal to high intelligence but much less experienced. Bill Clinton had been a governor with executive experience for over 10 years by the time he went to the White House (unlike Palin’s two years). Biden- his running mate- intellectually low on the totem poll. He is called an “expert” on foreign policy- this author strongly disagrees. Watching his discussions about foreign policy on youtube and reading his foreign policy reports online, reveal an extremely simplistic comprehension of foreign policy and obviously canned responses and/or reports written by his staff. Biden was also caught plagiarizing his speeches (he can’t come up with his own stuff ?)

McCain is an outsider- he claims- exactly what we DON’T need now- we don’t want someone outside the beltway- we need an insider to bring coalitions together and do backroom deals to settle the economic disaster we are facing. McCain’s military experience was hardly at the strategic level- so, his often repeated emphasis on his military past does not necessarily make him a global strategist. McCain was also badly tainted by the Keating Five financial scandal- cannot we not find a clean candidate ? His running mate- Sarah Palin- entertaining to watch, obviously a great hockey Mom, but with the extra exposure she has reluctantly allowed- its overwhelmingly apparent that she could not take over the Office of the Presidency as even nearly qualified.

So- who then ? Hillary is the only clear cut qualified person, both personally and politically who could step into the current crisis running- without need of a long period to get up to speed of what a President does and how to do it. Write in Hillary !