Saturday, October 11, 2008

Poof ! With the Collapse in Oil Prices- So Goes Russia's Power

Oil prices are collapsing as the markets anticipate lower consumption of oil because of the financial crisis and coming world recession. Hence, a projected long-term downward pressure on oil prices for the next 24 months at least. This, coupled with the recent financial meltdown, is going to put the Russian Bear back in his cave for another hibernation. Already in the past few days we have seen Russian pullbacks in areas of Georgian territory that they occupy. Putin- a.k.a Medvedev is going to return being an affable- lets cooperate kind of guy. Putin's first few years in office displayed a pronounced lack of aggressiveness- why ? No money. His military could barely pay for fuel and exercises, not to mention meat in the Russian soldiers diet. His military told him point blank- we cannot afford to be aggressive. Putin listened and bided his time, he thought he could reform the Russian economy and raise his budget that way. He was not successful, then, his luck turned- oil prices began to rise. One can almost follow an increased Russian aggressiveness- parallel to the rise in oil prices- which- the so called experts- claimed- even as late as a few weeks ago- would be a sustained upward trend in oil prices because of increased demand from a growing China and world economy. Well, of course, short term experts are usually wrong- ignoring the reports from the oil industry (as researched directly from this author- including speaking personally to a major official of China's oil exploration team in Beijing) that supplies for the next 50 years remain plentiful. Oil prices spiked as it became a hot commodity to invest in, it's where investment funds shifted to from a dead real estate market. Putin counted on long term high prices in oil to fund a resurgent Russia, to restore its world superpower status. It aint gonna happen, look in the next few days to weeks as a major rollback occurs in the public stance and actions of Russia's leadership as it will count on international cooperation to help stop a complete collapse in its mafia-ridden financial markets.

No comments: