A Multi-Polar World by 2025 ?

LNR covered this subject

The USA will still be the "dominant" leading power, although its power- relevant to the global pie “may” be smaller. Regarding the estimate by U.S. intelligence that there will be a “multi-lateral” world by 2025, it of course, assumes that America’s power does NOT increase in the next 17 years.


America Suffering Entropy in its Power Paradigm?

LNR reported in a previous article that indeed, U.S. global power may have entered a stage of a true downtrend (unlike previous announcements of America's downfall after Vietnam and the Carter years) , but that is only in the context of relative power. Declining relative power means a slow evolution towards a multi-polar world, this is true, however, do not confuse this with any notion that the U.S. will not remain, by far, the leading power of the world, unchallenged in hard power (GNP, military might, etc) and soft power, (influence, diplomacy, dollar being the leading currency). Why ? This is because the nations which are increasing their soft power- relative to the U.S., for many reasons have NO hope of replacing America as the leading power because of their corruption and undemocratic political systems. The Soviet Union could have never hoped to match their economic and military muscle with a communist authoritarian society- as the world was clearly trending towards open democracies with free economies. A "limited" Japanese democracy could not match their economic muscle with a corporate statist government, and lack of military power projection in order to assume, or be sought for any kind of world leadership. (Similar factors would be applicable to China and India). The current financial crisis is not deep and wide enough to cut into the gigantic economic advantage America has over other countries. The current crisis is serious and big, yes, but one must put it in the context of the scale, America's economy alone remains 25% of the worlds entire GDP, that has been consistent since WWII- no change.... it would take the combined GDP's of the next FOUR largest economies to equal the size of the USA: Japan, Germany, China and UK. Even at the growth rate of 10% a year, and an appreciating currency, and.. assuming America's economy did not grow at all- it would still take China at least 14 years to catch to America- assuming America had zero growth for the next 14 years- not likely- thus, we are looking at another 20 years assuming all things being equal, for China, the leading contender, to match American economic might.

Therefore, America remains the ONLY contender for world leadership for the future as it combines an open democracy, economic dominance and an unrivaled military with global reach. These three factors make it, less a force majeure, impossible for America to be replaced in the near or medium term as an uncontested hyper-power, even if its overall soft and hard power is in decline relative to others.