Monday, March 2, 2009

Fiscal Stimulus NOT Solution

The wide ranging, and now ever increasing, fiscal stimulus program touted by some in Congress and President Obama is not and cannot be the solution. Not only will it not provide short-term recovery, it will bankrupt the government (it's already technically bankrupt but it will exceed the legitimacy of credits extended) cause very high and possibly catastrophic inflation and leave America with no tools to enact recovery.

As LNR has stated several times before, the First key is jobs- a massive job creation/retention program to be implemented now- without jobs you have the three
L's-

Lack of consumer spending (this drives 2/3rd of our economy)
Lack of savings (savings provide cheap money for banks to lend- instead of getting
expensive - inflationary printed money from the government)
Lack of homebuyers - jobless people cannot afford nor qualify to buy homes which
would be a key to asset and equity recovery)

Once you get the minimum of five million jobs created/retained needed to stabilize the economic situation, you revive the property market with the following program:

A. Back up new mortgages for five years with government guarantees
B. Lower payments by amortizing loans over 50-60 years instead of 30 years
C. 5 year low fixed rates- like many other countries already have been doing
D. Credit checks/ income check by banks- the runaway lending did not go wrong
because people lost jobs and could not pay their mortgages, it was caused by the banks going crazy in loaning low-doc and no-doc money ( low document and no document loans- where no credit or income checks were done)

These two programs would stabilize the economic situation by year's end if implemented now.

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